South Florida lands in forecast cone for potential major Hurricane Hermine next week

Tropical Depression Nine formed from the system in the southeast Caribbean on Friday and forecast models show the system turning north, passing over Cuba and heading toward the Gulf of Mexico and possibly Florida as Hurricane Hermine.

According to the latest forecast models, South Florida is in the cone of the potential Category 3 storm.

“It looks like it’s going to end up being a major hurricane,” said Will Redman, a spokesperson for the National Weather Service Miami.

[ MAP: See the latest forecast map for potential Hurricane Hermine ]

[ READ IN SPANISH: ¿Llegará el huracán Hermine a Fort Lauderdale? Aquí está la ruta de pronóstico más reciente  ]

Warm waters in the Caribbean and the Gulf could help strengthen the storm into a hurricane. If a hurricane does develop, it would likely form Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

At that point, forecasts show the storm approaching Florida, with the effects being felt as early as Monday.

Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 24 counties Friday, including South Florida, Monroe County, as far north as Brevard County and several counties on the west coast. The Florida National Guard will be activated and on standby to respond as needed, the emergency order says.

“The current forecast shows a potential hurricane, even a major hurricane at some point as it gets close to Florida,” said Robert Garcia, a meteorologist with National Weather Service Miami, on Friday afternoon.

He encouraged South Floridians to keep alert over the weekend.

“It’s time to start getting those hurricane plans out, making sure everyone has all the things they need in their kits, water, know where your insurance papers are,” Garcia said. “Stay attentive to what’s going on with the forecast. Things are probably going to progress through the weekend and into early next week where that attention will necessary.”

The National Weather Service Miami wrote in its Friday morning briefing that “all tropical threats are in play” in South Florida, including damaging winds, storm surges, flooding and tornadoes.

“There is still a healthy amount of uncertainty in the track forecast at the day 4-5 timeframe,” said National Hurricane Center specialist Phillipe Papin.

In its 2 p.m. update, the National Hurricane Center said the storm is moving west-northwest at 13 mph. Experts expect it will move more westward over the next day or so before turning back west-northwest and then northwest over the weekend.

Maximum sustained wind speeds are close to 35 mph with a higher gusts. There will be a slow intensification over the weekend projected to become Tropical Storm Hermine later Friday and grow into hurricane strength by Monday morning with its center south of Cuba near the Cayman Islands and Jamaica.

The five-day path has it hooking north by Tuesday over Cuba and then parked off Florida’s southwest coast as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds and gusts of 130 mph by Wednesday morning.

Tropical Depression Nine will likely drop heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and possible mudslides in Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao, with heavy rains in Jamaican and the Cayman Islands coming in the next few days.

Florida’s Division of Emergency Management issued a press release Friday morning announcing that the state is preparing for potential landfall and urging Floridians to prepare their homes for the storm.

“It is critical that Floridians remain vigilant and prepared – it only takes one storm to cause costly or irreversible damage to your home or business,” said FDEM director Kevin Guthrie in the release.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Fiona has strengthened further as it races towards Canada, holding steady as a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds as of the Friday 2 p.m. advisory.

The storm is 475 miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia, moving northeast “very quickly,” according to the National Hurricane Center advisory.

Meanwhile, the Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued Bermuda’s Tropical Storm Warning.

Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in Canada Friday night, with the center of the storm approaching Nova Scotia. Several parts of Canada are under a hurricane warning as of 2 p.m. Friday, including parts of Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. Fiona is the first major hurricane of the 2022 season, meaning Category 3 and above.

Forecasters are also monitoring two other systems in the Atlantic, though Tropical Depression Nine is the biggest concern.

[ STAY UPDATED with the latest forecast for tropical weather at SunSentinel.com/hurricane ]

“The one to watch is definitely the system moving into the southeastern Caribbean,” said Eric Blake, a forecaster for the National Hurricane Center.

A tropical wave off Africa has formed into a tropical depression or Tropical Depression 10, the National Hurricane Center said Friday. And, a broad area of low pressure in the Atlantic has a 30% chance of developing in the next five days.

Tropical Storm Gaston is expected to gradually weaken over the next few days as of the Friday afternoon advisory. The storm is expected to move over the Azores today, 1,000 miles off the coast of Portugal.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.