Hurricane Center forecasters monitoring tropical wave as span with no named storms hits seven weeks

As one storm system drenched Mexico and also brought much-needed rain to southern Texas, forecasters’ attention is turned to a tropical wave that recently moved off Africa’s west coast, which the National Hurricane Center has given a 20% chance of developing in the next five days.

The new wave is forecast to move west-northwest to northwest at 15 to 20 mph during the early and middle part of this week. Forecasters say conditions are “marginally conducive” for further development.

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The Atlantic hurricane season has only produced three named storms thus far. The last one, Colin, dissipated from a Tropical Storm to a depression on July 3. The 49-day streak without a named storm is the third-longest in Atlantic hurricane season history.

The next named storm will be Danielle.

The longest dry spell was 61 days, from June 18 through August 18 in 1999. However, that two-month run of inactivity was followed by a frenetic conclusion of the hurricane season that featured five Category 4 storms (Bret, Cindy, Floyd, Gert and Lenny) and the drenching Category 2 Irene, which achieved a rarity, with its eye passing over Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties in mid-October.

While still in third place in length, the current streak of no named storms represents the latest in the year a drought of such duration has stretched to (in 2002, there was a 59-day dry run that went from June 2-July 31).

Forecasters say dry air, Saharan dust and wind shear have been among the reasons there haven’t been more storms this year.

The most active part of hurricane season is from now, mid-August, until the end of October, with Sept. 10 the statistical peak of the season.

The last Atlantic hurricane was Sam, which became a hurricane Sept. 24 and maintained that status until Oct. 5 as it cut a path between the United States and Bermuda.

There have been three named storms so far this season — Alex, Bonnie and Colin. Alex made its presence known in South Florida by dumping as much as 12 inches of rain in some areas.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its updated hurricane season predictions earlier this month.

NOAA predicts 14 to 20 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes with three to five being major, meaning Category 3 or higher.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.