Gas prices drop another 15 cents in Florida. But you know what threat looms next

Pain at the pump continued to ease last week.

The average price for a gallon of unleaded gas in Florida dropped another 15 cents on Monday compared to a week earlier. Monday’s $4.41 average was 47 cents a gallon less than the record high of $4.89 set on June 13.

“The price declines are attributed to falling oil and gasoline futures prices, which suffered steep drops in recent weeks due to concerns about a potential global economic recession and how that could result in lower worldwide demand for fuel,” said Mark Jenkins, spokesman for travel club AAA.

But concerns of another sort could drive prices back up in a few weeks. One analyst warned that gas prices could set new records if a major hurricane heads to the U.S.

On Monday, gas prices averaged $4.63 in Palm Beach County, $4.51 in Broward County and $4.52 in Miami-Dade County, according to AAA. The national average was $4.68.

In South Florida, bargain hunters could find prices below $4.20 in numerous competitive regions by consulting the price-comparison website GasBuddy.com.

In western Broward, a handful of stations around U.S. 441 and North University Drive in Davie and Hollywood were selling for $4.19, as were stations along Jog Road in Lake Worth in Palm Beach County.

In Miami-Dade County, prices were down to $4.09 at three stations off State Road 826 in North Miami Beach.

Those prices are subject to change at any moment, GasBuddy warns.

Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, wrote in his weekly blog Monday that prices could continue to decline another week as long as oil prices don’t climb beyond $105 a barrel and gasoline refiners continue to operate at or near full capacity.

But De Haan warns that peak hurricane season is just a few weeks away. If a big one comes to the U.S., shutting down or damaging offshore rigs and Gulf Coast refineries, we could be headed for another price spike that would set new records in August, he said.

In years past, gas prices have shot up before storms even get here as consumers in their potential path scramble to fill gas tanks and gas cans.

“It could be a wild ride, but for now, the plummet at the pump shall continue,” he said.

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U.S. crude oil prices have been hovering between $98 and $105 in recent days — a significant decline from highs of $129.44 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine began in March and $122.72 in early June after the European Union blocked Russian oil imports.

Domestic oil production continues to climb, keeping a lid on price hikes. The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. was up by two last week, to 752, which is 273 rigs more than a year ago.

Concerns about global fuel supplies are preventing sharper drops in gas prices, Jenkins added.

While gasoline demand in the U.S. is up 1% for the year compared to 2021, gasoline inventories are down by more than 16 million barrels and are 7% lower than a year ago.

According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, that’s because the amount of gasoline that the nation’s refineries can produce each day has fallen since 2020. Some refineries have closed in recent years, because of hurricane damage, pandemic impacts, high operations costs, weak future demand forecasts, and conversions to produce more renewable fuels.

Further declines are possible. In its most recent short-term energy outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected gas prices to average $4.27 in the third quarter of the year — down from $4.33 in the second quarter — barring unforeseen events that would disrupt oil supplies or gasoline production.

The EIA doesn’t expect significant relief until 2023, when it forecasts average gas prices to drop to $3.66.