“We were dealing with an area of low pressure very similar to this, developed down off the coast of Honduras, and initially models had nothing, had just a weak storm coming northward and that was it,” he said. “And you know what happened to Michael. Michael was a Cat 5 and it blasted Panama City… a lot of weather systems that develop down there are very difficult to forecast in October because there’s a lot of scenarios that can play out in these kinds of situations.