MIAMI – A month of mediocrity has caught up with the Miami Heat. Because of that, there is now only one way out.
In order to avoid an appearance in the treacherous NBA play-in tournament for a second consecutive season there no longer is even a Plan B for Erik Spoelstra’s team.
Instead, it comes down to requiring a single, specific set of circumstances to get to No. 6 in the East and punch the conference’s final direct ticket to the best-of-seven opening round of the playoffs:
– Win the final two games of the regular season, a Friday-Sunday pair at Kaseya Center against the Toronto Raptors, a 25-55 opponent featuring such luminaries as Javon Freeman-Liberty, Mouhamed Gueye and former Heat G League prospect Malik Williams, a team that has lost 19 of its last 22.
– Have the Orlando Magic lose Friday night at the Philadelphia 76ers, a proposition hardly out of the realm, with the Magic having lost three of their last four and the 76ers bolstered by the return of Joel Embiid and playing amid the scoring sizzle of Tyrese Maxey.
– Have the Magic follow up by losing their Sunday season finale to the visiting Milwsukee Bucks, which hardly is a firm proposition because the Bucks by then could be locked into their playoff position and feature a traveling roster led by their mascot Bango.
– Have the 76ers lose their Sunday season finale to the visiting Brooklyn Nets, a 32-48 team that surprisingly has won three of its last four, a team unencumbered by the need for lottery losing with its 2024 first-round pick headed to the Houston Rockets from the disastrous 2021 James Harden trade.
Such a confluence of all five of those specific results (including two wins by a Heat team that for large swaths on Wednesday night could not get out of its own way in a humbling 111-92 home loss to the Dallas Mavericks) and a three-way tie is produced at 46-36 between the Heat, Magic and 76ers, with tiebreaker to the Heat.
So, yes, reality setting in.
“We’re going to set ourselves up to probably be in the play-in,” guard Tyler Herro said. “We’ve been there before and we’ll figure it out.”
If it is the play-in, it would require one victory in two opportunities.
Win the first game, against possible opponents such as the 76ers, Magic or Pacers, and it would be on to the best-of-seven first round of the playoffs as the road team against the still-to-be-determined No. 2 seed in the East (most likely Milwaukee at this stage).
Lose that opening play-in game that will be played either Tuesday or Wednesday, and it would be on to a winner-take-all game next Friday at Kaseya Center against the winner of the Chicago Bulls-Atlanta Hawks Nos. 9-10 game.
Win that last-chance game and it’s on to the best-of-seven first-round as the road team against the No. 1 seed Boston Celtics, a team that closed 3-0 against the Heat this season.
Lose that last-chance game and it’s on to the lottery for the first time since the Heat drafted Herro at No. 13 in 2019 (yes, the Heat own their own first-round pick this June).
“The biggest thing for us,” center Bam Adebayo said, “is to get these last two.”
In addition to wishing and hoping for the specific results that would vault them to No. 6, the final days of the regular season also factor into whether the Heat would be at home or on the road for a Nos. 7-8 play-in game.
The Heat had control of that destiny until Wednesday night’s loss to the surging Mavericks. Now even if the Heat win both games against the Raptors, wins by the 76ers or Magic could leave the Heat with a travel itinerary for a play-in opener.
“We’re going to regroup,” Spoelstra said. “We’ve had to do that several times this year. We keep on finding a way to bounce back. And that’s what we’re going to do.”
The odds are daunting.
According to the modeling at PlayoffStatus.com, the Heat exited Wednesday’s night’s loss with a 1% chance at No. 5 in the East, 6% chance for No. 6, 48% chance for No. 7 and 46% chance for No. 8 (with the rounding putting the percentages above 100).
According to the modeling at .BasketballReference.com, the Heat exited Wednesday’s night’s loss with a 1.7% chance at No. 5 in the East, 9.4% chance for No. 6, 41.1% chance for No. 7 and 28.6% chance for No. 8.
“We have a great group,” Spoelstra said. “We have a very competitive locker room. We all want the same things. And sometimes this league can really humble you.”
So what now?
“Go out, get some South Beach sun,” Adebayo said, “get your mind off it and recuperate.”