MIAMI GARDENS — You try to keep perspective about October games in the NFL. They rarely matter come December and January.
But throw that rule out the window for this one … this is Dolphins at Bills.
This is big.
OK, the winner isn’t definitely winning the AFC East or certainly even securing a playoff berth.
Still, it’s a juicy matchup.
This is the undefeated, high-scoring, title-hopeful first-place Miami Dolphins (3-0) squaring off against rugged and proven Buffalo (2-1), the three-time defending AFC East champions who have owned the Dolphins at Highmark Stadium. Owned them.
It’s a rematch of last season’s playoff game that the Bills won — in Buffalo.
Again it’s only October, but this is a big one.
Here are a few things to look for in this game:
Dolphins offense
They scored 70 points last Sunday — 70! They rushed for 350 yards. They scored 10 touchdowns. Yeah, you’ve got to keep an eye on this offense, apparently whether or not wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is on the field. The architect, coach Mike McDaniel, has shown impressive growth as a play-caller. The triggerman, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is first in the NFL in passer rating (121.9) and second in passing yards (1,024) and touchdowns (eight), has been excellent. The offensive line has been equally excellent, only allowing one sack and clearing holes in the run game.
Wide receiver Tyreek Hill (412 yards receiving) is on pace for an NFL-record 2,329 yards. Running backs Raheem Mostert (240 yards rushing) and De’Von Achane (208) are ranked sixth and 10th, respectively, in the league. The Dolphins are ranked No. 1 in the league in total offense (550.3 yards per game), passing offense (362.0 ypg), rushing offense (188.3 ypg), and scoring offense (43.3 points per game). We could go on and on, but you get the idea. This offense is good.
Vic Fangio vs. Ken Dorsey
This is a big matchup because if the Dolphins defense can slow Buffalo’s offense even a little bit, it could be enough to provide a winning margin. The Bills averaged 33 points per game at home while beating the Dolphins twice last season. Both of those victories were by three-point margins (32-29 and 34-31).
Fangio, whose defense ranks 10th in the league overall (361.3 yards allowed per game), 20th against the pass (231.3 ypg), and 24th against the run (130.0 ypg), just has to slow the charge. Interestingly, Buffalo is second in scoring offense (30.3 points per game) while Miami is 21st in scoring defense (21.3 ppg allowed).
And considering Buffalo is at home, where it has dominated the Dolphins, as you’ll see below, advantage Dorsey.
Winning at Buffalo
Highmark Stadium has been a chamber of horrors for the Dolphins for the past 11 years. They’ve lost six consecutive and nine of the past 10 in Orchard Park, NY. Miami hasn’t won at Buffalo since Dec. 24, 2016. Prior to that it was Nov. 20, 2011.
During this span, Buffalo has hosted and chewed up Dolphins quarterbacks from Ryan Tannehill through Skylar Thompson, including Tua Tagovailoa, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jay Cutler. The Bills have hosted and defeated Dolphins coaches such as Mike McDaniel, Joe Philbin, Adam Gase and Brian Flores. Bills quarterback Josh Allen was a freshman at Firebaugh (Calif.) High School when this stretch began in 2011.
Yeah, this Bills home dominance over the Dolphins has covered lots of time and eras.
Bills QB Josh Allen
You’ve got to account for Allen (five touchdowns, four interceptions, 90.3 passer rating). Always. Yes, he keeps both teams in the game at the same time, as the saying goes. But he’s the reason the Bulls beat the Dolphins, 32-29, in December. He threw four touchdown passes and led scoring drives on the Bills’ final two possessions. His leap at the goal line on a two-point conversion tied the game at 29 before they won on a 25-yard field goal as time expired.
Of course, Allen also lost a fumble after being sacked in the fourth quarter, leading to a field goal that gave the Dolphins a 29-21 lead. Still, the guy is a baller and does way more good than bad. Miami must keep him under control. That goes for wide receiver Stefon Diggs (25 receptions, 279 yards, one touchdown), too.
Dolphins special teams
This is the type of game where the special teams errors the Dolphins have displayed in the first three games — missed extra point, missed field goal attempt, blocked field goal attempt, 99-yard kickoff return touchdown allowed — could make the difference between winning and losing. Before we get too carried away with special teams blunders, let’s remember kicker Jason Sanders is the most accurate kicker in franchise history, hitting 82.3 percent of his field goal attempts.
Of course, what many remember right now is he’s 3 of 14 from 50 or more yards since the start of the 2021 season. But also recall the most notable in that group was the 50-yarder he hit with 18 seconds left against the New York Jets last season to send the Dolphins to the playoffs. Still, there’s a cloud of suspicion hovering over special teams right now and they must play well to lift the doubts.