System over Caribbean could develop off Florida’s east coast next week

While former hurricanes Lisa and Martin were downgraded Thursday, a system off the east coast of Florida could develop into a tropical storm early next week.

The National Hurricane Center forecast an increased chance that a tropical depression or storm could form in the Atlantic and potentially threaten Florida in the next five days.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. update, forecasters predict a large nontropical low pressure system will develop this weekend over the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic near Puerto Rico.

“The system is initially expected be very broad and disorganized, but it could begin to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics by the end of the weekend,” forecasters said. “Environmental conditions could support additional gradual development early next week and a subtropical or tropical depression could form while the disturbance moves generally northwestward or westward over the southwestern Atlantic.”

Chances for formation were increased to 40% on Friday for it to form in the next five days.

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The National Weather Service Miami said in a weekly briefing Thursday that the potential subtropical system may impact South Florida “but there remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding the development of this disturbance.” A primary concern for now, the weather service said, is hazardous waters in the Atlantic.

Forecasters are also monitoring an area of weak low pressure located several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda that has been given only a 10% chance of developing in the next two to five days and will not affect land as of 8 p.m.

Hurricane Lisa was downgraded to a tropical depression Thursday, a day after making landfall southwest of Belize City as the season’s sixth hurricane.

Lisa is forecast to move back over water, entering the Bay of Campeche off Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula Friday, while continuing to weaken.

As of 5 p.m., Lisa’s maximum sustained winds dropped to 30 mph, and it was moving west at 12 mph, the hurricane center said.

And Hurricane Martin, which also formed Wednesday, transitioned into a post-tropical system but will continue to produce a broad area of powerful winds into the weekend, the National Hurricane Center said in its 5 p.m. advisory.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Martin will move slowly toward the east on Friday and then east to east-southeast over the weekend, the center’s advisory said. Its winds will slow over the next few days but still remain strong into the weekend, creating “hazardous wind and seas over a very wide area of the North Atlantic for the next couple of days.”

Martin had top winds of 80 mph at 5 p.m. Thursday and was moving north-northeast at 58 mph about 885 miles east-northeast of Newfoundland, Canada.

There have been two major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or above, so far this season.

NOAA has predicted at least four more hurricanes will form before hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30.

The next named storm to form will be Nicole.