On the cusp of what looks to be a very stormy summer, Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz held her annual hurricane season briefing on Thursday in Hallandale Beach.
Experts from FEMA, the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and Broward County Emergency Services briefed the congresswoman on the season ahead, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
NOAA has called for 17 to 25 total named storms this year, with eight to 13 of those expected to become hurricanes. Forecasters there said the season has an 85% chance of being above normal.
Dan Brown, of the NHC, said it’s been extremely busy the last several hurricane seasons. “The last below-normal hurricane season we’ve had was back in 2015.”
Between 2017 and 2023, the Atlantic and Caribbean produced 20 hurricanes’ landfall, nine of them major hurricanes, but South Florida has remained relatively unscathed.
Mindset is about striking a balance. “I would remind folks that it only takes one (storm),” said Brown, but for some perspective, he said in 2010 there were 12 hurricanes, five of which were major hurricanes, but none struck the U.S. “We really don’t know where the storms are going to go, but it only takes one storm.”
Brown explained that in mid-August the NHC will roll out a new cone map format that will add additional information on the hurricane’s damage potential inland, where rain flooding can be deadly.
“We hope folks use this to help focus more on the watches and warnings, and not necessarily on the cone.”
They will also roll out a new map specifically for Central America and the Caribbean that shows deadly rainfall potential. “Rainfall is such a deadly hazard, especially in Central America and the Caribbean where there’s mountainous terrain,” he said.
NHC
The NHC is rolling out a new cone map, right, in mid-August, that will emphasize inland threats as well. (Courtesy NHC)
Brown also emphasized caution after storms pass. Florida leads the nation in indirect hurricane fatalities since 2013, with 225. The next closest state is Louisiana with 55. Fatalities come from heart attacks, issues related to loss of electricity and generator safety, and actions during cleanup. The older population is at greater risk.
Meteorologist Robert Molleda, of the NWS’s Miami office, reiterated that an active season does not increase the likelihood of a South Florida landfall. 2020 was active, with 30 named storms. Despite that, South Florida did not get hit by a hurricane.
He also warned that rapid intensification of storms is a big concern, pointing out that Hurricane Otis vaulted from a tropical depression to a Category 5 storm last year in 60 hours and decimated Acapulco, Mexico.
That could certainly happen here, he said, and people need to be aware of how fast things can change.
Molleda reminded people that the wind field is far larger than the cone area. That’s because the cone is where they think the eye could travel. Impacts can run hundreds of miles up or down a coast.
“Look beyond the cone,” said Molleda.
Tracy Jackson, representing Broward County, sent a message on evacuating. “I would say that if you live in South Florida, and you can see water, you need to think about (how to evacuate),” said Jackson.
“There are lakes and canals. You may not be at the ocean, but you will lose access, transportation access, first responder access if the water gets too high. If you’re in an evacuation zone, you need to decide today where you are going to go. A mile or two inland away from surge areas is what we want people to do — do you have a friend, some family. You just need to go there. You don’t need to go to Georgia.”
Mike Spagnolo, of FEMA, talked about what Floridians can do to prepare.
— Make a plan now.
— Remember that evacuation doesn’t mean traveling hundreds of miles, it means travel tens of miles. Think of friends or relatives who you could stay with.
— Have a communication plan, or how will you charge your cellphone.
— Download the FEMA app for watches and warnings. It will also offer information after any disaster.
— Sign up for local alerts from your counties and cities.
— Review your insurance policies for level of coverage. Renters can get content insurance.
— Take these steps now, not when a storm forms.
At the end of the briefing, Wasserman Schultz said that “it’s an intimidating prospect to have such a significant prediction of storms. That doesn’t mean they’ll all hit the U.S., but briefings like this are important — It can help these incredible professionals make sure that the public understands what the risk is, and that it’s even more important to be prepared.”