The Lionel Messi factor Is just 1 part of the story: The rise of MLS as a sport and business

In 2008, along with maybe 6,000 other people scattered like confetti throughout a crumbling RFK Stadium, I watched D.C. United lose to New England. I didn’t know any of the players; we only made the drive to see our daughter’s youth team walk out during pre-match ceremonies.

Last month, I flew to North Carolina to watch, along with a crowd of 66,000 in Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte FC beat Inter Miami — and this year’s Ballon d’Or winner, Lionel Messi.

Which tells you nearly everything you need to know about the rise, and rise, of Major League Soccer, both as a sporting competition and a business.

Take franchise values. In 2008, Forbes valued the average MLS club at $37 million. This February, Forbes valued the average MLS club at $579 million, up from $313 million in 2019. (For those of you keeping score, that alone is a four-year uptick of 85%.) Los Angeles FC, a franchise that only started playing six years ago, is valued at a cool $1 billion.

As for Messi’s Inter Miami? As part of his 2007 contract to come to MLS, co-owner David Beckham negotiated an option to purchase a franchise for $25 million after his playing career ended. At the time, $25 million was more or less market rate for an MLS franchise. While Toronto paid $10 million that same year, Philadelphia paid $30 million in 2010.

But Beckham was playing the long game.

“When I came to MLS, people criticized me for moving to the league, but something about MLS intrigued me,” Beckham said. “I wanted to be successful as a player first; on the field was the priority. But my commitment was also to growing the sport. I saw huge changes ahead, and knew it would grow.”

Turns out he was right. Earlier this year — even before Messi’s arrival — Inter Miami was valued at $600 million.

Want to join in? It won’t be cheap: While MLS has expanded more than any global sports league over the past decade, going from 16 clubs to 30, the odds are good the league will add a couple more teams in the next few years. The franchise fee alone will likely cost you over $500 million.

“It’s been a record-breaking year for us,” says Camilo Durana, MLS executive vice president. “The Apple partnership has made it easier for people around the world to be fans of MLS. We delivered the inaugural Leagues Cup (a midseason competition between MLS and Mexico’s Liga MX). And, of course, it’s tough not to talk about Messi. The fact the protagonist of the World Cup chose MLS for the next step in his career, that Inter Miami won the Leagues Cup … if there had been a way to script it, we couldn’t have written it better.”

The 10-year, $2.5 billion deal that made Apple MLS’s primary broadcast partner was only possible because MLS told its teams not to sign new regional rights deals beyond 2022. That way, when the league’s national and global deals expired, it would be able to negotiate new deals for everything.

“For the first time in the history of sports, fans will be able to access everything from a major professional sports league in one place,” Apple’s Eddy Cue said. “It’s a dream come true for MLS fans, soccer fans, and anyone who loves sports. No fragmentation, no frustration — just the flexibility to sign up for one convenient service that gives you everything MLS, anywhere and anytime you want to watch.”

If Cue’s statement makes viewing MLS games sound somewhat “Apple,” that’s because it is. As with any genuine partnership, both sides clearly have input. For example, unlike in previous years — when game dates and times seemed almost random — this year MLS scheduled games on Saturdays and occasional Wednesdays, and every game kicked off at 7:30 p.m. local time. In the same way NFL fans know exactly when games are played, predictability helps create a sense of “appointment” viewing.

Making every match available via streaming also makes sense for audience consumption. While the average age of most professional sports viewers skews older (47 for the NFL, 57 for Major League Baseball, 58 for Nascar), MLS boasts the youngest fan base, as well as one of the most diverse, with approximately 30% of Hispanic or Latino heritage.

Add it all up, and during the 2023 regular season, more fans in the U.S. and Canada attended MLS matches, engaged on social media, and purchased consumer products than in any of the league’s prior 28 years — which, by extension, makes sponsorship deals more attractive for brands. Key partnership renewals include Adidas, Audi, and AT&T, and new partnerships were signed with companies like Ticketmaster, RBC Wealth Management, and Campbell’s Snacks.

Then there’s this. “Soccer tends to think in four-year cycles,” Durana says, “centered on the World Cup. And 2026 (when the U.S., Mexico, and Canada host the World Cup) will be one of the most important in the league’s history.”

Sixty-four games will be played, with total live attendance of over 4.5 million people. Literally billions of people will watch via TV and streaming. The final is the most-watched broadcast in the world, typically boasting 2.5 times the Super Bowl viewership. (The 2022 World Cup final — which featured Messi — reached a global audience of 1.5 billion.)

The spill-on effect should be dramatic. For comparison’s sake, the run-up to the U.S.-hosted 1994 World Cup created a 33% increase in interest in soccer in this country.

Which takes us back to Messi. “There’s no question that we looked a lot smarter the day that Messi decided to come to MLS,” Cue said. “The reality of it is, I think Messi accelerates, both on a timeframe and number perspective, how much we can grow.”

Cue is right, at least in my case. I went to Charlotte because I wanted to see Messi. (Our son, no stranger to seeking experiences, called it a “bucketlist move.”) Messi drew loud cheers every time he touched the ball. But he was also booed by some Charlotte fans, not out of dislike but as a way of saying, “You may be the GOAT … but you’re playing on the other team.”

The Messi experience? It didn’t disappoint.

But Messi was only part of the experience. In March, before the team’s inaugural match, the microphone cut out during the National Anthem. The crowd stepped in to finish the song, and the practice became a tradition: The National Anthem is “led by” a singer who sings the first verse and then lets the crowd take over. (Those shared moments were goose-bumpy.)

The stadium is excellent. The halftime drone light show was really cool. The game — and the quality of play — was great.

MLS won’t sink or swim with Messi. Stadium experiences matter. Global media rights deals matter. A consistently compelling product matters.

But, ultimately, people always matter more — on the field, in the stands, and at home. I went to see Messi, but when I think back on the day, I’m struck by the broader experience. The game, sure, but also the crowd. The atmosphere. The communal experience of rooting for, cheering for, and marveling at the skills of highly talented people who excel at their craft.

Ultimately, the quality of that experience — whether in person or at home — will determine whether MLS continues to grow at such a rapid pace, Messi or no Messi, World Cup 2026 or no World Cup 2026.

Because professional sports, as with any business, are ultimately not about the product but the people who consume the product.

Which is, at least to this point, something MLS clearly seems to understand.

(c) 2023 Mansueto Ventures LLC; Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.