Hurricane Earl to become extratropical storm, but South Florida beaches could see rip currents

Hurricane Earl is no longer expected to strengthen into the season’s first major hurricane. Instead, Earl will strengthen slightly in the Atlantic before it is forecast to slow down considerably, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of Saturday morning, Earl had maximum sustained winds of about 105 miles per hour with higher guts. Earl is forecast to become a powerful hurricane-force extratropical low this afternoon. Weakening is expected during the next few days, and Earl’s winds are likely to fall below hurricane force tonight or early Sunday.

Earl’s wind field is expanding. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles.

The storm is located about 380 south of Cape Race, Newfoundland, moving northeast at about 35 mph.

Forecast models call for Earl to curve away from the U.S., into the northeast Atlantic. The storm is not expected to threaten Florida, but the winds from the large hurricane will create large waves and swells across the western Atlantic, the latest advisory said.

As a result, there is a high risks of rip currents across the eastern United States over the weekend, including South Florida beaches.

On Thursday, Earl’s maximum sustained winds had increased to 105 mph, making it the first Category 2 hurricane of the 2022 Atlantic season.

The last time a major hurricane hadn’t formed by Sept. 9 was in 2014, when Edouard became a Category 3 on Sept. 16. That season followed a 2013 where there were no major storms recorded.

Two other disturbances that were in the far eastern Atlantic that the National Hurricane Center was tracking dissipated, according to the 8 p.m. update Friday.

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center is tracking another system Saturday that has low odds of developing into tropical depression.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday. Gradual development of the wave will be possible during the early to middle part of next week while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through the next 48 hours is low, and it has a 30 percent of developing over the next five days.

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Hurricane Danielle weakened to a tropical storm early Thursday, and by 11 a.m. it became a post-tropical storm. Danielle and Earl were the first named storms to form in the Atlantic since early July, when Tropical Storm Colin formed offshore of the Carolinas.

This comes after a quiet August with no named storms, something that happened for only the third time since 1961.

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The 2020 hurricane season set a record with 30 named systems, while 2021′s season was the third most active with 21 named systems. An average year calls for 14 named storms.

The next named storm to form will be Fiona.

Forecasters say dry air, Saharan dust and wind shear have been among the reasons there haven’t been more storms this year.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.