Florida poll: 67% want abortion legal in most or all cases, just 12% want complete ban

As Florida and much of the U.S. impose major restrictions on access to abortion, Florida residents don’t like the trend.

The overwhelming majority of Florida residents — including more than half of Republicans — want abortion legal in most or all cases, a statewide poll shows.

The May poll from Florida Atlantic University comes as Florida and the rest of the nation brace for a new era, with major changes in laws governing abortion.

Abortion is a powerful issue for many voters — with people on both sides viewing it as a crucial issue of the current political era. But the new poll also shows that for many, it is not a high priority.

Asked to prioritize five key issue areas, abortion was at the bottom of the list.

Posed the question, “Right now, how much of a priority should each of these issues be for the country to address?” cost of living/inflation was rated high priority by 84% of those surveyed. Abortion was cited by 39% – behind the war in Ukraine, COVID-19, immigration and education. And 29% — far more than on the other issues — said it should be a “low priority.”

“It is not clear this issue will drive voting as abortion was only ranked as a high priority issue by 39 percent of Floridians,” Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist and research fellow at the university’s Business and Economics Polling Initiative. said in a written statement.

Floridians’ views:

32% said abortion should be legal in all cases.
35% said it should be legal in most cases.
22% said it should be illegal in most cases.
12% said it should be illegal in all cases.

There are significant differences based on age and party affiliation, with younger adults and Democrats much more supportive of abortion rights than older Floridians and Republicans. There is relatively little difference between men and women, the survey found.

Laws governing abortion are about to change significantly. On July 1, a new Florida law bans almost all abortions after the 15th week of pregnancy. Currently, abortion in Florida is legal until the 24th week of pregnancy.

The new law doesn’t provide exceptions for victims of rape, incest or human trafficking; abortions will be allowed after 15 weeks only if there is a “fatal fetal abnormality” certified by two physicians.

Further restrictions on abortion may be coming. A draft U.S. Supreme Court opinion shows a majority of justices are prepared to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision, which said women have a constitutional right to have an abortion.

If that is overturned, in a final ruling expected by early summer, the issue will be decided in each state. Anticipating an overturning of Roe, many states have passed laws banning abortions, and both supporters and opponents of abortion rights expect Florida to consider such a ban.

The poll shows that wouldn’t be popular with the broad swath of Florida residents. But there is much more support among among Republicans. Most Republican elected officials oppose abortion rights.

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It’s unpopular among Democrats. Most Democratic elected officials support abortion rights, and party activists are trying to use the pending Supreme Court ruling to mobilize voters to turn out to punish Republicans in this year’s midterm elections.

Independents fell between the two parties. They were more likely than Republicans and less likely than Democrats to believe abortion should be legal in all cases. And they were less likely than Republicans and more likely than Democrats to believe it should be illegal in all cases.

Democrats: legal in all cases, 50%; legal in most cases, 35%; illegal in most cases, 10%, illegal in all cases, 6%.
Republicans: legal in all cases, 14%; legal in most cases, 38%; illegal in most cases, 33%, illegal in all cases, 16%.
Independents: legal in all cases, 27%; legal in most cases, 36%; illegal in most cases, 26%, illegal in all cases, 10%.

Age wasn’t a dividing line about whether people thought abortion should be legal in all or most cases or illegal in all or most cases. But there were differences in degree of support or opposition. For example, those in the youngest tier of people surveyed were more likely to think abortion should be legal in all circumstances. Among those 65 and older, there was higher support for legal abortion in “most” cases.

Age 18-34: legal in all cases, 43%; legal in most cases, 25%; illegal in most cases, 20%, illegal in all cases, 13%.
Age 65 and older: legal in all cases, 27%; legal in most cases, 40%; illegal in most cases, 26%, illegal in all cases, 8%.

The results come from an FAU Business and Economics Polling Initiative survey of 532 Floridians conducted online through survey company Dynata from May 20-22. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The sample sizes for subgroups — such as Democrats or Republicans or people in different age groups — are smaller, so the margin of error is higher.

Pollster ratings from FiveThirtyEight.com give FAU an A/B rating based on the historical accuracy and methodology of its polls.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com or on Twitter @browardpolitics