Tropical storm expected to form in Gulf before landfall in northeast Mexico, forecasters say

Parts of Texas and Mexico remain under tropical storm warnings Saturday morning as it becomes increasingly likely a system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will make landfall as a tropical storm this afternoon, forecasters said.

And a tropical wave is forecast to move off Africa’s west coast Saturday or Saturday night. It’s being given a 20% chance of developing in the next five days.

The National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories for Potential Tropical Storm Four on Friday afternoon. It is expected to become a tropical storm Saturday before making landfall on Mexico’s northeast coast, according to the center’s 11 a.m. update.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on its way to further investigate the system.

The next named storm will be Danielle.

[ STAY UPDATED with the latest forecast for tropical weather at SunSentinel.com/hurricane ]

As of 11 a.m. Saturday, the system was located 165 miles south-southeast of the Rio Grande River and moving northwest at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The disturbance has a 60% chance of developing in the next 48 hours.

By Saturday night, forecasters predict the system will reach maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.

“On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to reach the coast of northeastern Mexico late this afternoon and then move across the Rio Grande Valley tonight and Sunday,” the NHC said.

Regardless of whether the system develops it could deliver much-needed rain to south Texas. Forecasters expect the region to see between 1 to 3 inches of rain with higher amounts in some far southern parts of the state.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect on the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

The tropical wave expected to roll off the African coast is forecast to move west-northwest to northwest at 15 to 20 mph during the early and middle part of next week. Forecasters say conditions are “marginally conducive” for further development.

The most active part of hurricane season is from now, mid-August, until the end of October.

The last Atlantic hurricane was Sam, which became a hurricane Sept. 24 and maintained that status until Oct. 5 as it cut a path between the United States and Bermuda.

There have been three named storms so far this season — Alex, Bonnie and Colin. Alex made its presence known in South Florida by dumping as much as 12 inches of rain in some areas.

Forecasters say dry air, Saharan dust and wind shear have been among the reasons there haven’t been more storms this year.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its updated hurricane season predictions earlier this month.

NOAA predicts 14 to 20 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes with three to five being major, meaning Category 3 or higher.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.