Atlantic’s first named storm of 2022 could form from remnants of Hurricane Agatha in Pacific

Hurricane Agatha, a Category 2 storm poised to come ashore on the Pacific coast of southern Mexico Monday, is expected to weaken after landfall —but its remnants could emerge later this week in the Gulf of Mexico, where it could become the Atlantic basin’s first named storm of 2022.

If that happens, it would be called Alex.

“For us in South Florida, it’s still kind of hard to know if there will be any impacts from any of the remnants and Agatha,” said Robert Garcia, senior meteorologist for the National Weather Service.

After moving over the mountains of southern Mexico, Agatha is expected to dissipate by Wednesday morning — the official start of hurricane season, said Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and spokesman for the Miami-based National Hurricane Center.

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center said Monday that an area of low pressure left over from Agatha had a 40% chance of developing in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the next five days. It could drift into the northwest Caribbean, nearer to Florida, by midweek.

Agatha’s maximum sustained winds remained at 110 mph Monday, putting it just below the 111 mph threshold for a Category 3 hurricane.

As of 11 a.m., Agatha was about 50 miles southwest of Mexico’s southeast coast, moving northeast at about 8 mph, and bringing hurricane warnings and watches with it to the Mexican coast.

If Agatha, a Pacific hurricane, were to fully cross over Mexico and continue intact through to the Gulf, it would retain its name, Feltgen said.

The water between Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba’s western tip, which extends north into the Gulf of Mexico and then to the Florida Straits, is especially warm for this time of year, hurricane experts say.

Warm water temperatures are an optimal factor in tropical storm and hurricane development.