A new Major League Soccer season means a clean slate and an array of possibilities, no matter how much prevailing wisdom suggests that the league’s strongest only got stronger.
If there’s one thing astute MLS followers over the previous 30 seasons will have gleaned, it’s that thinking something is a sure thing can be a fool’s errand. And while eventual champion Inter Miami was a popular preseason pick to become the league’s best last season, it’s easy to forget that there was a fallow period leading into the FIFA Club World Cup, where Miami won only two of nine matches, and another after it where it won two of seven. At that point, Miami was starting to feel the heat, hearing proclamations that the squad was overrated and too old.
The Athletic’s expert panel of Tom Bogert, Henry Bushnell, Felipe Cardenas and Paul Tenorio — nor is Lionel Messi a hands-down pick to win a third straight MVP.
We take on those questions and others entering an MLS season that will have the 2026 World Cup as its backdrop and could yet churn out some of those “very MLS” surprises en route to crowning its 31st champion.
Who will win the MLS Cup?
Tom Bogert: Los Angeles FC
I’m not trying to be a contrarian by picking against Inter Miami. Miami will be the MLS Cup favorites, but LAFC is right there, with Son Heung-min and Denis Bouanga up top and a typically solid midfield and defensive base behind them. LAFC has been successful every year. The playoffs can be a crapshoot with weird results in one-game sample sizes, though it feels less that way this year than normal.
Henry Bushnell: Inter Miami
Duh. Now, do I think Miami will cruise from February straight through December? No. Messi’s load will be managed more carefully than ever. And MLS, as always, will get weird. But it would be silly to pick anybody else.
Felipe Cardenas: Nashville SC
In 2025, I picked Nashville to finish dead last. Now Nashville has signed free agent star Cristian Espinoza. The Argentine may not rank in the top five in MLS jersey sales, but he should give Nashville, a blue-collar team, a creative spark it desperately needs. Start planning the parade through Lower Broadway.
Paul Tenorio: Inter Miami
I think you have to pick Miami. This might be the best and deepest MLS team in history. Messi has to stay healthy, but they got better at positions of need (goalkeeper, center back, No. 9).
Who will win the Supporters’ Shield for best record?
Bogert: Inter Miami
The team may not focus on this as a primary goal, but not only does it have the top-end talent led by Messi, it is much deeper than it was last year. Perhaps more to the point for this trophy, Miami is much, much better defensively. Expectations are always high in Miami with a Messi-led team, but we genuinely could be looking at a new league record for points.
Bushnell: Vancouver Whitecaps
The Whitecaps could have, and perhaps should have, won it last year. And they should be similarly good in 2026. They have the right blend of depth and top-end talent to be a regular-season juggernaut.
Cardenas: Inter Miami
Messi & Co. would love to win a treble this season. This is a very good MLS team, but I don’t think Miami is quite at that level just yet. And while knockout tournaments can be punishingly unfair, Miami will not have to test fate during the regular season. It will run away with the Supporters’ Shield.
Tenorio: LAFC
I usually like the idea of picking a non-CONCACAF Champions Cup team to win the Shield, but I don’t know if that holds as true as it did in the past. I will take a Western Conference team to rack up more points this year and roll with LAFC.
Who will have the worst record?
Bogert: Sporting Kansas City
I expect a lot more signings to come, but right now the roster is threadbare, especially defensively. Dejan Joveljic would find a way to score goals even if our staff of writers were his chance creators. The dude just finds the back of the net. But whoever starts in goal for Sporting KC will be picking the ball out of the net a whole lot more.
Bushnell: CF Montreal
There are eight to 10 genuine contenders for this “honor,” but I’ll go with the cheapest club in MLS.
Cardenas: CF Montreal
I’m not going to overthink this one. It’s Montreal.
Tenorio: Sporting Kansas City
There is clearly still work to do on the roster, so maybe this will change over the first few weeks and months of the season, but looking at MLS right now, I think the smart bet is with Sporting KC.
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How many goal contributions (goals plus assists) will Messi have?
Bogert: 50
The line has to be set at Carlos Vela’s 2019 record of 49; Messi finished one shy of that last year with his 29 goals and 19 assists. (MLS officially counts secondary assists, it should be noted.) Will he play enough minutes in a World Cup year to match or surpass that record?
Bushnell: 38
He will have absurd per-90 numbers, similar to each of the past two seasons. I just think he and Miami will be very cautious with his minutes, especially between now and the World Cup, and especially after he strained a left hamstring muscle in a preseason friendly.
Cardenas: 37
I thought Messi would slow down a bit last season, and he simply took over the league after a stuttered start to the year. In 2026, he will prioritize his fitness for Argentina, which should limit his appearances for Miami. Messi will have no trouble scoring, though. And he may actually produce more assists with new No. 9 Germán Berterame ready to get to work. Let’s go with 20 goals and 17 assists.
Tenorio: 40
He is averaging 1.6 goal contributions per game, so I would say he sticks somewhat close to that rate and plays in about 25 games this season.
What is your goal contribution expectation for Son and Thomas Müller in their first full seasons in MLS?
Bogert: My expectation is higher for Son. He and Bouanga will be among the top challengers to Messi’s Golden Boot. It is also more likely that Son plays more minutes than Müller. Son had nine goals and three assists in 10 regular-season matches (806 minutes) last year. Expecting something north of 22 goals and 10 assists is not unreasonable, while we can book Müller for 18 goals and 12 assists.
Bushnell: Son might beat Messi to the Golden Boot. Müller will be part of the chasing pack — in part because Vancouver will not be as reliant on him. Let’s go with 39 for Son and 32 for Müller.
Cardenas: Korean superstar Son is primed for a truly exceptional year in 2026. He had his first taste of MLS last season and seemed to relish the competition. He can mirror Messi’s goal numbers and will have a 20-goal, seven-assist season. Müller, too, will have a better grasp of the physical demands of MLS. I don’t think, however, that he was acquired by Vancouver to score goals. His value is more tactical and psychological. Put him down for 13 goals and nine assists.
Tenorio: I’ll go with 36 goal contributions for Son and 28 for Müller.
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MLS MVP: Messi three-peat or the field?
Bogert: Messi is the favorite, but, of course, it is not a foregone conclusion. His first MVP went to the final day for my vote, with Cucho Hernández a tight second on my ballot. Between Son, Evander, Anders Dreyer, Bouanga and more, Messi will have stiff competition. It comes down to minutes for Messi as well. I’ll go with the field but be boring and say Son.
Bushnell: The field. And from the field, Son would be my pick — or even Bouanga, if he stays at LAFC through the end of the season.
Cardenas: Son will win his first MVP in 2026. He is the only player in this league who can match Messi for goals and eyeballs.
Tenorio: Both Son and Messi are going to play in the World Cup this summer. That opens up the opportunity for someone else to win the MVP. But I think one of those two will win it. I’ll take the upset and bet on Son.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.