Florida turnout in the presidential election hit 50% of registered voters on Friday, with about 7 million votes cast.
Republicans are outvoting Democrats. If that trend holds through the final day of voting on Tuesday, that portends Florida victories for former President Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Rick Scott.
As of early afternoon Friday, Republicans had cast 3.01 million mail and in-person early voting ballots — 808,000 more than the 2.29 million votes cast by Democrats.
Republicans have more registered voters in Florida than Democrats. But that’s not the only reason they’re doing well. So far a higher percentage of Republicans (56.3%) have cast ballots than Democrats (51.8%).
No party affiliation/independents and people registered in third parties have cast 1.58 million votes so far. That’s a turnout of 39.4% of the people who aren’t registered in one of the two major political parties.
Figures are based on data posted by Fresh Take Florida at the University of Florida College of Journalism and Communications, which compiles figures from county supervisors of elections websites and the state Division of Elections.
Florida hit 50.01% turnout just before 1 p.m. Friday.
Democrats have some time to make up ground. Two full days of early voting — Saturday and Sunday — remain in the big urbanized counties in Florida, including Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach. People can vote all day Tuesday in their neighborhood polling places.
Even if Democrats don’t think Harris will win the state, said Florida International University political scientist Kathryn DePalo-Gould, their level of participation will affect who wins lower offices.
Democratic turnout could also determine passage or failure of the proposed constitutional amendments that would legalize recreational marijuana use by adults and enshrine abortion rights in the Florida Constitution.
The biggest unknown, she said, is whether Republicans’ heavy early voting turnout will carry through Election Day. “Are all of these people who would have turned out on Election Day turning out early?” DePalo-Gould asked.
Far more people are using in-person early voting than mail-in ballots. That’s showing up in the numbers and at lines at some early voting sites. “It seems like the early voting locations are much busier than they were four years ago, which is perhaps not surprising because of COVID,” DePalo-Gould said.
Voting patterns have been scrambled in recent years.
Until the COVID pandemic, Florida Republicans turned out in droves via mail voting, and Democrats excelled at early voting. But during the pandemic, Democrats were more reluctant to show up in person so shifted to the mail. And Republicans were discouraged from mail voting by former President Donald Trump’s false claims that it is riddled with fraud.
The change in voting preferences shows in the numbers. As of Friday, Democrats had cast 170,500 more mail ballots than Republicans.
But Republicans had cast almost 979,000 more in-person early votes than Democrats.
Broward
Broward turnout, at 48.2% of all the country’s registered voters, is running behind the state. As of early Friday afternoon, 551,146 people had voted in Broward by mail or at early voting sites.
Broward County is overwhelmingly Democratic and is essential territory for the party. In recent years, Democrats have often underperformed in Broward.
As of Friday, the percentage of registered Democrats in Broward County who have already cast ballots — 51.98% — slightly exceeds the statewide Democratic turnout.
Broward Republican turnout of 53.65% is lagging the party’s turnout statewide.
No party affiliation/independent and minor-party turnout in Broward, at 38.7%, is slightly behind the rest of the state.
Palm Beach County
Palm Beach County is a major Florida battleground, and lots of the county’s voters have already cast their ballots.
Countywide turnout was just shy of 54% early Friday afternoon, almost 4 percentage points ahead of the state.
Democratic turnout was 57.8%. Heavy Democratic voting in the county is a psychological boost for the party, which was stung in 2022 when its turnout collapsed and Republicans racked up victories in areas previously won by Democrats.
Republicans, too, are running ahead of their statewide turnout. Republican turnout in the county was 58% on Friday afternoon.
No party affiliation/independent/third-party registered voter turnout was 45.1%.
Miami-Dade County
In Florida’s largest county, Miami-Dade, the 47.2% turnout overall was running below the state rate.
Republicans were doing well. So far, 57.1% of Miami-Dade County Republicans have turned out compared to just 46.3% of the county’s Democrats and 38.8% of no party/independent/third party voters.
Ways to vote
Early voting: Runs from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. through Sunday at regional early voting sites in each South Florida county. If there are lines, polling places will stay open so people in line 7 p.m. can vote.
Mail voting: It is too late for people to return a mail ballot via the Postal Service. Florida has a strict deadline of 7 p.m. Election Night, which is Tuesday, for mail ballots to be at the Supervisor of Elections Office. Postmarks don’t count. Every election there are ballots that arrive late and don’t get counted.
People can drop off mail ballots at early voting sites while they’re open. Supervisor of Elections Offices will also accept ballots on Monday and Tuesday.
People who have received mail ballots don’t have to use them; people can have them canceled and vote at an early voting site over the weekend or at a neighborhood polling station on Election Day.
Election Day: Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. If there are lines, polling places will stay open so people in line by 7 p.m. can vote. People are required to vote at their neighborhood polling stations
Information
People can check to see if they’re registered to vote, see if their mail ballots have been processed, and find locations of early voting centers and Election Day polling places online and by phone. (It’s too late to register to vote or to request a mail ballot under Florida law.)
Broward County: browardvotes.gov, 954-357-8683.
Palm Beach County: votepalmbeach.gov, 561-656-6200.