Majorities of Florida voters support referendums to restore abortion rights and legalize recreational marijuana — but not necessarily enough to win passage of the proposals.
A Florida Atlantic University poll released Wednesday found both falling short of the 60% required for passage. A Suffolk University poll also found the abortion amendment short of hitting the threshold and the marijuana question with slightly more than it needs.
Abortion: FAU found 56% of voters surveyed support and 21% oppose Amendment 4, which would enshrine abortion rights in the state Constitution. Suffolk reported 58% support and 35% opposed.
Marijuana: FAU found 56% support and 29% oppose Amendment 3, which would legalize recreational marijuana for people age 21 and older. Suffolk reported 63% in favor and 33% opposed.
There are still more than enough voters who said they didn’t know — 23% on the abortion question and 15% on the marijuana question in the Florida Atlantic University poll — that passage is possible. Voters will be bombarded with extensive pro and con campaigns on both questions through the fall.
Abortion
The Florida Atlantic University poll found the abortion rights amendment is supported by a majority of every group surveyed — except Republicans.
Republicans were evenly divided, with 35% supporting and 35% opposing the amendment.
Democrats, with 80% in support and 8% opposed, favor the amendment more than any other group.
Independents are in favor, 59% to 15%.
Democrats were far more likely to have made up their minds. Just 12% of Democrats said they didn’t know how they would vote, compared to 27% of independents and 30% of Republicans.
Women were more likely than men to support the abortion rights amendment.
Women support it 59% to 19%, a 40-percentage point advantage.
Men support it 54% to 24%, a 30-point advantage.
And voters under age 50 were more likely to support the proposed amendment (62%) than voters 50 and older (52%.)
A July 30 University of North Florida poll, using a different methodology for interviews, found greater support (69% to 23%) for the abortion rights amendment.
Marijuana
The UNF poll found support for the marijuana referendum at 64% of likely voters, with 31% opposed.
The FAU survey released Wednesday shows a big age divide on the referendum that would allow recreational use of marijuana under state law by adults.
Voters younger than age 50 favor it, 69% to 20% — a difference of 49 percentage points, FAU reported.
Voters 50 and older support it more narrowly, 47% to 36%, a difference of 11 points.
There’s no difference based on gender, with 56% of men and 56% of women supporting legalization.
There is, however, a significant partisan divide.
Democrats favor the marijuana amendment 74% to 15%.
Independents favor it 63% to 22%.
Republican support is much lower at 37%, with 46% opposed.
“If they’re going to hit that 60%, the supporters of the amendment are probably going to have to reach a few more Republicans or have a particularly Democratic-leaning electorate, which sees a challenge in a presidential election year,” said Kevin Wagner, a Florida Atlantic University political scientist.
Wagner is also co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab, a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science, which conducted the poll.
With Harris in race, poll shows closer contest in Florida. Trump now leads by 3 points.
Fine print
The poll of 1,055 Florida registered voters was conducted Aug. 10 and 11 by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab.
The survey used an online panel and automated phone calls to reach other voters. It has a margin of error equivalent to plus or minus 3 percentage points.
However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats, or men and women, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.
Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.
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