Florida poll: DeSantis far ahead of Crist in governor’s race. A smaller lead for Rubio in Senate contest.

Gov. Ron DeSantis is significantly ahead of Democratic challenger Charlie Crist in a poll of Florida voters released Friday.

The poll, conducted by Florida Atlantic University, shows 51% for DeSantis and 40% for Crist — an 11-point advantage for the Republican incumbent.

The U.S. Senate race was closer. U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., leads his challenger, U.S. Rep. Val Demings, D-Orlando, 48% to 42%, a difference of 6 percentage points.

“Republicans continue to perform well in Florida,” FAU political scientist Kevin Wagner said in a written summary of poll results. “If these numbers hold, Florida’s status as a battleground state might be in question.”

The survey, released by Florida Atlantic University’s Business and Economics Polling Initiative, was conducted Oct. 12-16. It’s the first publicly released poll taken since Sept. 28 — the day Hurricane Ian made landfall in southwest Florida, causing deaths, damage and upheaval in people’s lives. The storm and its aftermath also disrupted campaigns.

Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis and former Democratic U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist are running for governor in the Nov. 8 election.

The Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative said the margin of error for its survey is plus or minus 4 percentage points. DeSantis would be ahead of Crist even if polling vagaries went all in Crist’s favor and against DeSantis. In the Senate race, that could make the actual standing of the candidates much closer.

Voting has been underway by mail since late September, in-person early voting starts Monday, and Election Day is Nov. 8. Crist and DeSantis hold their only debate on Monday.

The new polls results are in line with what pollsters found before the hurricane.

Before the FAU poll was released, the Real Clear Politics average of four Florida polls conducted in September had DeSantis at 49.8% and Crist at 42.0%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points.

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Before the FAU poll was released, Rubio was at 46.5% in the Real Clear Politics polling average, with 41.8% for Demings — a difference of 4.7 percentage points.

U.S. Rep. Val Demings, D-Fla., waves to the audience after her televised debate with U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., at Duncan Theater on the campus of Palm Beach State College in Palm Beach County, Fla., Tuesday, Oct. 18, 2022. (Thomas Cordy/The Palm Beach Post via AP, Pool) (Thomas Cordy/AP)

The results come from an FAU Business and Economics Polling Initiative survey of 719 registered voters who said they were likely to vote. Data was collected via cellphones, land lines and an online panel through the survey company Dynata. The numbers were weighted by ethnicity, age, education, party affiliation, region and gender, based on 2020 turnout modeling.

The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The sample sizes for subgroups — such as Democrats or Republicans or people in different age groups — are smaller, so the margin of error is higher.

Pollster ratings from FiveThirtyEight.com give FAU an A/B rating based on the historical accuracy and methodology of its polls.

U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., waves to the audience following his debate with challenger U.S. Rep. Val Demings, D-Fla., at Duncan Theater on the campus of Palm Beach State College in Palm Beach County, Fla., Tuesday, Oct. 18, 2022. (Thomas Cordy/The Palm Beach Post via AP, Pool) (Thomas Cordy/AP)

This article will be updated. Please check back for additional information.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com or on Twitter @browardpolitics