Streets flood Saturday across South Florida but Tropical Storm Alex unlikely to form until system leaves state

A day of windy, rainy weather will dawn Saturday in South Florida, but the vast expanse of storm clouds sweeping across the state may not form Tropical Storm Alex until after emerging over the Atlantic Ocean.

Flights by Hurricane Hunter aircraft could not find a well-defined center, indicating the disturbance had not developed the closed wind circulation necessary for designation as the first tropical storm of the 2022 season. But flood waters made driving dangerous across South Florida, with high water slowing drivers on I-95 in Miami, stranding cars downtown and leading to warnings to stay off the road.

“Severe flooding in Hallandale Beach!” the Hallandale Police Department said in a 5;55 a.m. tweet “Residents if you can stay home please do not go out, most roadways are flooded! Do not risk your safety or your vehicles!”

Up to 10 inches of rain has fallen in some areas, the National Weather Service in Miami said Saturday morning.

At 5 a.m. Saturday, the storm’s poorly defined center was located about 100 miles southwest of Fort Myers, moving northeast at 18 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm had maximum winds of 40 mph, putting it just over the threshold for tropical storm strength, although its lack of a closed circulation prevented it from being designated one.

[ MAP: Here’s the latest forecast path of likely Tropical Storm Alex ]

The risk that South Florida would see tropical-force winds, which means at least 39 mph, has declined, although the possibility remains that some areas will experience them, with higher gusts.

The forecast of the storm’s maximum winds as it crosses South Florida has been reduced from 45 mph to 40 mph. A factor in its reduced strength is the storm’s failure to develop the classic swirling structure of a tropical cyclone, a rotating system that ranges in strength from depression to hurricane.

“The organization of the disturbance over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico has continued to deteriorate overnight,” the hurricane center said in a 5 a.m. update.

Wind shear and dry air have prevented the formation of a deep, well-defined rotating structure.

“In other words,” the hurricane center said, ” the system has gone the wrong way in becoming a tropical cyclone.”

Flash flood warnings went up for parts of Broward and Miami-Dade counties, with 2 feet or more of water and stranded cars reported in the streets of Miami’s downtown Brickell area.

Forecasters said South Florida could get between 4 and 8 inches of rain, with some isolated areas getting as much as 12 inches of rain.

[ RELATED: Tropical storm warning: What’s open and what’s closed ]

By Friday night, the majority of southeast Florida had already seen 2 to 3 inches of rain, the National Weather Service said, with as much as 6 inches over parts of western Collier County, including the Marco Island and Naples areas.

Fort Lauderdale is expected to get an additional 5.5 to 9 inches by Saturday night, and Miami will see between 3 and 7 additional inches of rain. West Palm Beach could get between 4 and 8 additional inches.

Despite the expected heavy rainfall and potential for flooding, the South Florida Water Management District said the region is prepared to handle the storm.

“Our grounds are not overly saturated at this point,” said Randy Smith, spokesman for the SFWMD. “We’re in a really good situation, not that you ever want a storm of 8 to 12 inches of rain. But if you had the scenario that’s probably best to handle it, we’re probably there right now.”

[ RELATED: As heavy rain approaches, South Floridians are already losing power. Here’s what to expect. ]

All of South Florida remains under a flood watch through Sunday morning, the National Weather Service Miami said.

In Miami-Dade County, the Biscayne Bay shoreline may see storm surges of 1 to 2 feet above ground about the time of high tide, according to the National Weather Service’s update.

The hurricane center predicted the system’s wind speeds will reach a maximum of 50 mph by Sunday evening.

The South Florida Water Management District is optimistic about its ability to handle the predicted rainfall amounts.

[ GET the latest updates on the tropical weather at SunSentinel.com/hurricane ]

The SFWMD manages water from Orlando to the Florida Keys, and has been lowering canal levels in South Florida for days in preparation of a possible onslaught of rain.

“We’re doing the same thing on the southwest coast as we are in Martin, Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade [counties],” Smith said.

Smith said water levels are in good condition starting with Lake Okeechobee, which is at 12.5 feet, right where the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers likes it heading into hurricane season. Smith said the SFWMD is like the “interstate of canals” when it comes to water management.

David Fleshler can be reached at dfleshler@sunsentinel.com and 954-356-4535.

[ RELATED: Hundreds of flights delayed or canceled as tropical system blankets Florida with rain ]