The Republican presidential primary in Florida on Tuesday could reveal the strength of the GOP protest vote against former President Donald Trump, and it could also hurt Democrats in municipal elections since their party isn’t participating.
“If Trump has a relatively weak performance in Florida, that could make Democrats prioritize Florida a bit more … and keep investing there on the Democratic side,” said J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
Both Trump and President Joe Biden clinched enough delegates to secure their party’s nomination from primaries in Georgia, Mississippi and Washington.
Even though former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley dropped out of the race a week earlier, Trump continued to post lower numbers than expected, including 74% in Washington. Trump received less than 80% of the vote in 12 Super Tuesday states, including a loss to Haley in Vermont.
Trump supporters have pointed to Haley’s efforts to lure Democrats and independents to vote for her in GOP primaries as a reason to discount the results as any warning for Trump in the general election.
But the Florida primary, unlike many previous primary states, is open only to registered Republicans. A strong showing here for candidates other than Trump, including Haley and Gov. Ron DeSantis, who are both still listed on the ballot along with several other candidates, could reveal the size of the contingent of Republicans not fully on board.
“I’ve basically been describing Trump as a quasi-incumbent because that’s basically what he is,” Coleman said. “What Haley’s been able to do is to show where Trump’s pockets of weaknesses are.”
Biden has also faced protest votes in his primaries, including a 13% “uncommitted” vote in Michigan due in part to a campaign against Biden’s Israel/Gaza policies. Uncommitted voters and other candidates also got about 13% of the vote in Washington.
‘Up for grabs’
What exactly counts as a substantial enough protest vote to act as a warning for either party, however, is still unclear.
John Conway, director of strategy for the group Republican Voters against Trump, didn’t want to make any predictions for Florida. But he said “30% is the number that we’ve seen time and time again. It represents the center-right Republican vote that is up for grabs.”
Florida isn’t one of the states where the group is launching a $50 million ad campaign showcasing former Trump voters. But Floridians are included among the first-person testimonials arguing why they won’t support him in November.
“Donald Trump is a danger to our democracy, and what better messenger than his former supporters to tell that to other voters like themselves,” Conway said. “They find him responsible for the insurrection that took place at the Capitol. And they’re extremely worried that he’s talking about retribution, that he’s talking about being a dictator on day one, and that he’s floated suspending the Constitution.”
The ad campaign, Conway said, is designed to tell center-right voters “it’s OK to still be a Republican but vote against Donald Trump.”
Randy Ross, the Trump campaign’s Orange County chair in 2016 and current member of the Trump Victory fundraising group, said Republicans should vote for Trump now that he’s clinched the nomination because it would be the pragmatic thing to do.
“If you need to hold your nose to vote for someone, then do it,” Ross said. “We already know who the candidates are going to be … but [vote] to send a message that we’re ready to do this one more time.”
Democratic worries
The Florida Democratic Party canceled its presidential primary, so Democrats can’t express dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden by casting ballots for Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson, former candidates who have dropped out.
Without a Democratic primary, the party’s registered voters have less of an incentive to show up at the polls than Republicans. As of Wednesday, Republicans accounted for more 92% of all votes cast by Thursday, at 630,000 compared to 55,000 for all Democrats and independents combined.
A big part of the reason for the lopsided numbers is that Democrats and independents are only eligible to vote in nonpartisan municipal elections on Tuesday — in just four communities in Broward and 22 in Palm Beach County. All Republican voters can vote in the party’s presidential preference primary.
In Broward, the state’s most Democratic county, Republicans had cast 76% of all early and mail votes as of Thursday morning.
Both parties are messaging voters asking them to vote for their municipal candidates, even though they run without party labels.
And with Republicans having more of a reason to show up at the polls — whether to show support for Trump or register opposition — that could help their candidates.
Chris Marino, chair of the Broward Republican Party, said he “would assume that there’s an advantage on turnout” for the GOP. The county party’s messaging who the organization has endorsed, Marino said.
Broward Supervisor of Elections Joe Scott said by text it’s a reasonable assumption that the Republican primary and lack of a Democratic primary would help Republican candidates. But, he said, there isn’t yet data to back that up.
In Palm Beach County, Republicans weren’t doing nearly as well, according to figures from the state Division of Elections website, accounting for 56% of all early and mail ballots cast so far.
Alison Novoa, director of strategic initiatives at the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections Office, said a Republican advantage “is possible, yes, because there is only a Republican primary.” But she added, the elections office is aware that Democrats are communicating with their voters and encouraging them to turn out.
“There probably is a benefit to Republican candidates to having the Republican primary on the same day, because it will increase turnout among Republicans. With that said, because it’s not a competitive race (for the Republicans), there’s probably not a lot of excitement to vote in the presidential primary, so the effect might well be marginal,” said Kevin Wagner, a Florida Atlantic University political scientist.
And Wagner said, it all depends on how effective the parties are at communicating with their registered voters about who to vote for, since the candidates in city, town and village elections appear on the ballot without party labels.