High school football predictions: State semifinals — who will make it to the championship?

St. Thomas Aquinas, ranked nationally No. 11 by MaxPreps, and No. 21 Chaminade-Madonna will try to take the easier road to the FHSAA state championship games next weekend at Pit Bull Stadium on the campus of FIU, as they have home semifinal games.

Six-time defending state champion St. Thomas Aquinas (5A) and four-time defending state (1A) champ Chaminade-Madonna both rolled to regional final victories, as did defending champ West Boca (6A) and also Cardinal Newman (1A).

Defending Class 4A state champion American Heritage rallied to defeat Archbishop McCarthy 25-20 while the other two winners — West Broward and Cardinal Gibbons — both won by three points.

I was 8-1 last week in running my overall record to 176-33 (84.2%) for the year.

5A

Riverdale (12-1) at No. 11 St. Thomas Aquinas (12-1) (Friday, 7:30 p.m.): In a battle of the Raiders, Riverdale comes in on an eight-game winning streak following a 28-26 win over Manatee to reach the state semifinal for the first time in school history. Senior quarterback Theodis Harris ran for two TDs in their recent win, but departed with a concussion, so his status is up in the air. Senior Lovensky Blanchard leads the team on the ground with 1,385 yards and 21 TDs. The six-time defending state champion St. Thomas Aquinas Raiders have won 12 straight games since opening the year with a 26-23 loss to California Mater Dei. Senior QB Mason Mallory accounted for all four scores in last week’s win over McArthur, which was the 34th consecutive playoff win during their streak. St. Thomas Aquinas 24, Riverdale 7.

6A

West Boca Raton (11-2) at No. 70 Seffner Armwood (13-0) (Friday, 7 p.m.): The host Hawks have won 35 of their past 38 games and have outscored the opposition 577-58 this season. Armwood has pitched three straight shutouts, and seven in their past eight games, as eight players have double-digit tackles for losses, led by junior linebacker Theo Wilson (86 tackles, 32 TFLs, 12 sacks). West Boca junior quarterback Trey Moran accounted for three TDs as the 6A defending state champion Bulls thumped Mitchell 41-3 for their fifth straight win. West Boca senior and UM commit Javian Mallory enters the game averaging 101.3 yards per game. Armwood 20, West Boca 16.

West Broward (11-2) at Gainesville Buchholz (12-1) (Friday, 7:30 p.m.): We have another game featuring the same mascots: the Bobcats. Senior DL Jayson Farfan led West Broward with  three of the team’s six sacks last week, while sophomore linebacker Tyler Tindel had 18 tackles, a sack and defended a pass as West Broward rallied from a 14-point first-quarter deficit to knock off the region’s top seed, Miami Southridge. Buchholz has won 11 in a row, thanks in part to senior Justin Williams (64 receptions for 1,059 yards, 12 scores; 492 rushing yards, 9 TDs). West Broward, playing in their first state semifinal, has won 11 games in a row since losing the first two games of the year. Gainesville Buchholz 21, West Broward 17.

4A

American Heritage (7-5) at Choctawhatchee (12-1) (Friday, 7 p.m.): The defending 4A state champion Patriots rallied to defeat host Archbishop McCarthy 25-20 as backup running back TJ Mullen ran for 158 yards and a TD, filling in for senior Jonathan Bueno, who left in the first quarter with an injury. Mullen, who started the season as a defensive back, might be called on again with Bueno’s status uncertain. It was the Patriots’ third straight win. The host Indians, who won their lone state championship in 1990 (Class 5A), are also riding a three-game win streak, and last reached the final four in 2014. Choctawhatchee 21, American Heritage 20.

2A

Cardinal Gibbons (10-3) at Jacksonville Bolles (12-1) (Thursday, 7:30 p.m.): The host Bulldogs steamrolled Pensacola Catholic 44-10 behind senior QB Jaden Weatherly (1,860 passing yards, 22 TDs; 271 yards rushing, 6 TDs) and crushed visiting Pensacola Catholic 44-10. It’s the sixth state semifinal appearance in seven seasons for Bulldogs coach Matt Tobin. They have won 11 state titles (the last coming in 2011), which is second in the state to St. Thomas Aquinas and their 16. Cardinal Gibbons handed its coach Matt DuBuc his 100th career victory with a 20-17 win over previously undefeated Miami Immaculata La Salle (12-1) in the regional final. The Chiefs ran for 294 yards as they reached the state semifinals for the first time since 2021, when they won the second of back-to-back state titles. Jacksonville Bolles 17, Cardinal Gibbons 16.

1A

Tampa Carrollwood Day (12-0) at Cardinal Newman (10-3) (Friday, 7:30 p.m.): Cardinal Newman is hoping to win the first state semifinal in school history. Last season, the Crusaders fell 22-21 in double-OT on a 2-point conversion by Clearwater Central Catholic in their state semifinal debut. Cardinal Newman senior RB Phoenix Donghia (1,068 rushing yards, 22 TDs) and senior LB Adam Balogoun-Ali (101 tackles, 15 TFL, 2 sacks per game) lead the way. Carrollwood Day averages 44 points and 484 yards per game, led by sophomore running back Kameron Battle (2,021 yards rushing, 21 scores; 334 receiving yards, 6 TDs). Carrollwood Day 31, Cardinal Newman 27.

Jacksonville Trinity Christian Academy (9-4) at No. 21 Chaminade-Madonna (10-2) (Friday, 7:30 p.m.): Chaminade-Madonna faces a familiar foe if it wants to reach its 10th consecutive state final appearance. The Lions topped the Conquerors 35-6 in last year’s state semifinals after Trinity Christian had won the previous two meetings in 2020 and 2016, en route to winning 3A state championships in both years. Chaminade-Madonna has won seven state championships in the past nine years. Trinity Christian Academy is no stranger to winning champions either having won nine in the school’s history, the last one coming in 2021, when they won the 2A title. Chaminade-Madonna 28, Trinity Christian 7.

Inaugural Florida Invitational Tournament

7A-4A South Division Championship game

Cantonment Tate (10-3) vs. Dr. Joaquin Garcia (10-3) (Thursday, 7 p.m.) at The Villages Charter School stadium near Orlando: The Aggies, from just north of Pensacola, have a young team with just 19 seniors on its 57-player roster. This game should be a contrast of styles, as Tate relies on a potent running game, averaging 186.3 yards on the ground per game, thanks in part to sophomore Tanner Clark’s 114.2 yards per game. Since a knee injury sidelined starting sophomore quarterback Miles Delarosa in September, Tate has gone the quarterback-by-committee route, finally settling on Clark, who has run for 1,500 yards and accounted for 18 TDs. Dr. Joaquin Garcia, winners of five in a row, is led by senior QB Caleb Butler (2,131 yards passing, 24 TDs; 275 rushing yards, 6 TDs).

Dr. Joaquin Garcia coach Brandon Walker, whose team finished 1-9 in his first year and has reached the postseason the past two years, said there was a level of disappointment when they didn’t make the main FHSAA playoffs, but that was erased when they got the No. 1 seed in the south bracket of the FIT.

“We have come a long way in the three years that we have been open as a school,” Walker said. “I am super proud of our players, coaches, and school for all of the hard work it has taken to get to where we are. We are nowhere near where we want to be, but our program has taken steps every year, and we will continue to climb the ladder. Tate has a good football team, and it’s going to take a great effort on our part to get the victory.”