Pick the play when the Miami Dolphins’ future seemed brightest this era, and you’d pick that first play two Decembers ago in San Francisco. Coach Mike McDaniel was on a five-game win streak and gut-guessed his mentor, Kyle Shanahan, and defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans would make a statement by blitzing that opening play.
McDaniel made a statement of his own: Tua Tagovailoa threw 11 yards over the middle on a purposely designed counter-attack to Trent Sherfield, who split the linebackers and outran the two-deep safeties for a 75-yard score.
“Home run! Play one! A 75-yard lightning strike!” broadcaster Kevin Harlan said.
Where did that moment go? And that lightning-strike offense? Two Decembers later, where did the full belief go that McDaniel was an offensive savant and modern-day athlete whisperer not just capable of resurrecting Tua’s career but perhaps this full franchise’s fate as well?
McDaniel is just as smart, just as creative and leans just as much into his quirky personality and untraditional ways in those good times. But as the 49ers come to Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday it’s a matchup of two teams trying to salvage any good thought from their season.
San Francisco (6-8) is having a down year after making the Super Bowl and two NFC Championship games the past three years. For the Dolphins (6-8), it’s just another year after year of mediocrity that this latest era is the latest to befall.
Now the question is why general manager Chris Grier should survive into a seventh season running a team going nowhere. And if he doesn’t survive, would the new guy want McDaniel? Or, as usually works, want to bring in his own coach?
McDaniel inherited a combination of young talent and high-shelf free agents and the results explain themselves. It’s not just the first-round playoff losses the previous two years and the near-certainty of missing the playoffs this season.
His Dolphins were 2-6 against playoff teams in 2022, 1-6 in 2023 and stand 1-4 this season against teams that would be in the playoffs today. What happened?
Look at the Houston game where with the season on the line the Dolphins defense kept giving the ball back. And the offense kept failing. The team once defined by that 75-yard lightning strike couldn’t bait Ryan’s Houston defense last week. Tua completed 3 of 10 passes thrown over 10 yards, including a touchdown and three interceptions, according to NextGen Stats.
It’s not just the downfield success is gone. So is throwing downfield for the most part. McDaniel’s hyper-aggressiveness has been tempered this season by 27 percent of the Dolphins passes being thrown behind the line of scrimmage.
His downfield passing game of 2022 when Tua averaged a league-high 8.5 yards of average intended air yards — how far the ball is designed to be thrown — stands at a league-low 5.5 yards this season.
This isn’t the offense McDaniel wants to run, is it? It just the best option as he sees it. Everyone has a pet theory why: two-deep defenses coupled with Tua’s challenged arm strength negate the deep pass; no running game since left tackle Terron Armstrong began playing hurt and right tackle Austin Jackson was lost for the season, allowing defenses to back up; Tyreek Hill has lost a half-step approaching 31; Tua’s injury history demands quicker releases and, hence, shorter throws.
McDaniel remains different than most coaches even in a season like this. He’s still funny, still mature, still positive. But the prime manner of his football sense has been this offense. Against good teams it can’t find its way.
“The biggest thing is we’re trying to get our football to the standard we feel good about playing,” he said this past week.
Two years ago when these teams met an injury to San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo meant last-pick-in-the-draft rookie Brock Purdy started against the Dolphins. Shanahan’s system made it work. Purdy has proved to be a good addition to the 49ers. But a great quarterback? Let’s see what they think when it’s time to pay him perhaps this offseason.
McDaniel runs Shanahan’s system. The Dolphins paid Tagovailoa, added to their playmakers but still lost that bright-tomorrow feel of two years ago. This isn’t the offense McDaniel wants to run. The larger question, the one that probably ends this era, is what went wrong.
Reeling Dolphins still have motivation to play well, win Sunday vs. 49ers