More than half of American voters plan to vote before Election Day, Florida Atlantic University found this week in a nationwide poll. Republicans are far more likely than Democrats to wait until the last day.
And after years of former President Donald Trump slamming mail voting by mail — claiming without evidence that it’s rife with fraud — Republicans are far less likely than Democrats and independents to use mail voting.
The findings come from a Florida Atlantic University poll this week in which voters were asked how they plan to cast their ballots in November. And the results carry implications for how this year’s elections could turn out, especially in close contests.
Mail voting
FAU found 29% of U.S. voters plan to vote by mail.
It’s by far the most preferred method for Democrats, picked by 36% as the method they’ll use to vote.
Independents were also more likely to use mail voting, the choice of 31%.
Voting by mail is much less popular — in last place among voting methods — for Republicans, chosen by just 19%.
The nationwide survey doesn’t take into account different laws and customs in different states.
In Oregon for example, a mail ballot is sent to all voters, which makes it much easier to use. In Florida, voters must request a mail ballot by an October deadline.
Republicans’ distancing themselves from early voting is expected. Leading up to and since the 2020 election Trump has complained about voting by mail, and his skepticism has taken hold among Republican voters, often echoed by the party’s elected officials and activists.
“There certainly has been a much more significant narrative on the Republican side that doesn’t support mail-in voting,” Wagner said.
Earlier this year, Trump delivered one of his assaults on mail voting. “If you have mail-in voting, you automatically have fraud,” he said in a Fox town hall, adding, “If you have it, you’re going to have fraud.”
A day after his assertions of fraud, U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla. — an early and prominent Trump supporter — said in an email blast that Republicans should prepare for victory “by requesting your vote-by-mail ballot TODAY.”
Scott would presumably be helped if Florida Republicans get their votes in via mail since he’s up for reelection this fall. And Trump himself has urged his supporters to request mail ballots for the 2024 election.
Despite his years of complaints, there is no evidence of widespread voter fraud, according to a range of government officials, political analysts and partisan campaign operatives. Multiple investigations, including those conducted by Republicans, have uncovered nothing more than sporadic minor instances around the country and in Florida.
Early voting
Both Democrats and Republicans, in similar numbers, like in-person early voting in the days leading up to Election Day.
In-person early voting is the choice of 27% of U.S. votes, including 32% of Republicans and 30% of Democrats.
Independents, by contrast, are far less likely to say they plan to use in-person early voting. It was the choice of just 15% of independents.
Early voting is convenient in Florida. People can go to any early voting site in their home county, hours are often long, and it’s available on weekends.
Election Day
Traditional Election Day voting, in which people go to polling stations in their neighborhoods on one Tuesday — the day after the first Monday in November — is popular among many voters.
FAU found 40% of voters said they’d vote on Election Day, something driven by Republicans and independents.
Election Day voting was the method picked by 48% of Republicans, 44% of independents, and 31% of Democrats.
Implications
People’s preferences for the methods they use to vote could have, conceivably, have an impact on some election results.
For example, Wagner said, mail ballots have a higher chance of getting rejected and not counted. If someone makes a mistake on a signature or doesn’t follow the instructions precisely, the ballot may not be counted.
In Florida, people have some time to fix, or “cure,” a problem. But in some states, such as Pennsylvania, “there really isn’t time to correct,” Wagner said.
Ballot rejections could, conceivably, have an effect in a places like Pennsylvania, where the presidential race is exceedingly close. A higher rejection rate, which doesn’t mean there’s fraud taking place, could hurt Democrats.
Something like a signature question can more easily be addressed on the spot during in-person early voting or on Election Day.
But waiting until Election Day, which more Republicans prefer, comes with its own potential problems.
“There’s a risk,” Wagner said.
If someone has a family emergency, weather is bad or traffic is jammed, a voter may not make it to the polls in time, it’s too late. “Things like bad weather and traffic affect turnout.”
Demographic differences
The poll didn’t uncover significant differences between men and women, though men were slightly more likely than women to prefer mail voting and women were slightly more favorable toward in-person early voting.
White college-educated voters are much more likely to prefer mail voting than those without college educations. And people without college degrees are more likely to prefer voting in person on Election Day.
Fine print
The poll of 820 U.S. registered voters was conducted Sept. 16 and 17 by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab, which is a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science.
The survey used an online panel and automated phone calls to reach other voters. It has a margin of error equivalent to plus or minus 3 percentage points for the full survey of Democrats, Republicans and independents.
However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats or men and women, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.
Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.
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