A tropical disturbance in the Caribbean has formed just east of Cuba, near Haiti.
The system is expected to move to the northeast, on a trajectory that would take it over the Turks and Caicos Islands and then south of Bermuda.
The National Hurricane Center said at 8 a.m. Thursday that conditions are not expected to be conducive to development, resulting in a 10% chance of development in the next seven days.
This the second tropical disturbance of 2024. The first formed off African in April. Hurricane season officially starts June 1.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, sea-surface temperatures in the Caribbean Basin, especially the eastern Caribbean, are currently about 2 degrees C warmer than the 1991-to-2020 average for this date in May.
Sea-surface temperatures in the Caribbean also are warmer than the average August through October temperatures from 1990 to 2020.
Additionally, El Niño, which typically hinders hurricane formation with strong wind shear, is fading. Both of those factors have led forecasters to predict an “extremely active” Atlantic hurricane season for 2024.
Forecasters expect a La Niña to kick in by July or August, which can enhance hurricane formation with weaker trade winds and more low pressure in the area of hurricane formation.