Medium odds for subtropical or tropical depression to form this week, forecasters say

A subtropical or tropical depression could form this week from a storm system located more than 500 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, National Hurricane Center forecasters said Wednesday.

The system is forecast to drift east over the central Atlantic before turning north by the weekend, where the system will encounter cooler water, which should inhibit development.

It has been given a 40% chance of developing within the next two days and a 50% chance of developing within the next seven days, according to Wednesday’s latest outlook.

Last week, meteorologists with Colorado State University upped their forecast to an “above normal” hurricane season in the Atlantic this year due to the “extreme anomalous warmth” of sea surface temperatures.

The intensifying effect of that warm water appears to be winning out over the tempering effects of El Niño, forecasters said in the report issued Thursday. The battle between the two weather patterns is incredibly rare, making predictions especially difficult this year.’

In the initial forecast released in April, CSU meteorologists called for 13 named storms and six hurricanes, two of which were expected to be major. In June, meteorologists increased their forecast to 15 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of them major.

The new forecast, announced Thursday, now predicts 18 named storms and nine hurricanes, four of which will be major. The forecast already includes an unnamed subtropical storm in January and Tropical Storms Arlene, Bret and Cindy in June.