Florida can expect a “near-normal” hurricane season, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration announced at a news conference Thursday.
NOAA is forecasting between 12 and 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes, and one to four major hurricanes in its 2023 Atlantic hurricane season outlook.
The agency predicts a 40% chance of near-normal activity, a 30% chance of above-normal activity, and a 30% chance of below-normal activity.
“It’s time to prepare,” Rick Spinrad, a NOAA administrator, said as he announced the predictions Thursday. “Remember, it only takes one storm to devastate a community. If one of those storms is hitting your home or your community, it’s very serious.”
2023 is the first time in eight years that forecasters have not predicted above-normal activity.
A “normal” year, according to NOAA, is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The weather organization raised the standards for “normal” in 2021, from 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, meaning Category 3, 4 or 5 storms with wind speeds ranging from 111 mph to 157 mph or more.
Last year, NOAA predicted above-normal activity with nine hurricanes, four of them major. Eight hurricanes ended up developing, two of them major. One of them was Hurricane Ian, a Category 4 hurricane that made landfall on a barrier island in Southwest Florida on Sept. 28, 2022, claiming at least 156 lives.
NOAA’s forecast comes a month after Colorado State University predictions of “slightly below average activity,” according to a report released in April.
The report predicted a total of 13 named storms, eight of them becoming hurricanes. Two of the hurricanes are expected to become major hurricanes.
Predictions of below normal activity stem in part from the possibility that an El Niño will develop this year. The weather pattern, a period where the ocean surface warms in the eastern half of the Pacific, can decrease cyclone activity in the Atlantic because of increased vertical wind shear.
Even with the likelihood of El Niño, forecasters predict only a slight dampening in activity; temperatures in the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are significantly warmer than usual, which favors an active Atlantic hurricane season.
The season begins June 1, reaching its peak between August and October, and ends on Nov. 30.