Hurricane Ian now a major Category 3 hurricane; tropical storm watches issued for parts of Broward, Palm

An intensifying Hurricane Ian is expected to grow wider and stronger and then slow down on its approach toward Florida’s Gulf coast which could prolong dangerous storm surge, winds and heavy rainfall, forecasters said.

On Florida’s east coast, a tropical storm warning was issued early Tuesday from Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County line including Lake Okeechobee, and a tropical storm watch was issued for Deerfield Beach north to Jupiter Inlet.

Ian’s top winds increased to 115 mph, making it a major Category 3 storm, at about 2:30 a.m. ahead of a landfall in western Cuba. Ian came ashore southwest of the town of La Coloma at 4:30 a.m. with top winds at 125 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.

Ian won’t linger over Cuba but will slow down over the Gulf of Mexico, growing in size and intensity, “which will have the potential to produce significant wind and storm surge impacts along the west coast of Florida,” the hurricane center said.

It is forecast to weaken slightly before making landfall on Florida’s Gulf coast, but Ian is still forecast to be at major hurricane strength when it passes near the west-central Florida coast on Wednesday and Thursday, the center’s latest advisory said.

A storm surge of up to 10 feet and 10 inches of rain was predicted in the Tampa Bay area, with as much as 15 inches inches in isolated areas. As many as 300,000 people may be evacuated from low-lying areas in Hillsborough County alone, county administrator Bonnie Wise said.

[ MAP: See the latest forecast map for potential Hurricane Ian  ]

At 5 a.m. Tuesday, Ian was 5 miles north of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, moving north at 12 mph. It is expected to pass west of the Florida Keys Tuesday and then intensify to Category 4 strength, with top winds of up to 140 mph.

“You have a significant storm that may end up being a Category 4 hurricane,” DeSantis said at a news conference. “That’s going to cause a huge amount of storm surge. You’re going to have flood events. You’re going to have a lot of different impacts.”

By Monday evening, Hurricane Ian’s outer bands began to bring rain to the South Florida region, said Shawn Bhatti, a meteorologist for National Weather Service Miami.

“We’re effectively in the outer environment of the storm at this point,” he said.

Ian will bring intermittent to heavy rainfall to the area over the next 12 to 18 hours, Bhatti said, and then heavier rainfall throughout the day Tuesday afternoon and through most of Wednesday.

Tropical storm warnings and watches were extended to the Middle Florida Keys and Lake Okeechobee, reflecting the storm’s larger wind field, while a broad area of the Gulf coast braced for the first direct hit on the continental United States of the 2022 hurricane season.

Despite the attention given to high winds, the biggest killer in hurricanes tends to be water. The hurricane center warned that the Gulf coast faces a high risk of storm surge, the rapid increase in sea level that can flood coastal neighborhoods.

“This portion of the coastline — the west coast of Florida — is incredibly vulnerable to storm surge,” said Jamie Rhome, acting director of the National Hurricane Center, speaking at a news conference Monday afternoon outside the hurricane center’s headquarters in Miami. “This is the quintessential case of not focusing on the exact track. You won’t have to have a track for the center to make a direct hit for a significant storm surge on the Florida west coast. We’re indicating a potential for as much as 10 feet of storm surge for portions of the Florida west coast.”

A particularly threatening element of the hurricane comes from storm surge, the wind-driven rise in sea level that can flood coastal areas.

“This looks very threatening for tremendous storm surge into the Tampa Bay area,” said Dan Kottlowski, lead hurricane forecaster for AccuWeather, the private forecasting service.

“The barrier islands would get very impressive storm surge — huge waves, phenomenal waves, waves that people don’t normally see along the west coast of Florida,” he said. “Speaking conservatively, a six-foot storm surge and as much as that in waves, so it could be a 12-foot rise in water. That’s a scenario that you don’t like to think about, but it’s possible.”

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A group of young men fish under rain and threatening cloud definition at the Pompano Pier on Monday, September 26, 2022, as Hurricane Ian heads toward Florida’s Gulf coast. (Carline Jean/South Florida Sun Sentinel)

Southeast Florida remains outside the cone projecting the likely course of the storm’s center. But winds of tropical-storm force and hurricane force can occur outside the cone, depending on how close to the center comes to the edge of the cone.

All of South Florida is under a flood watch until Thursday morning with “significant to major flooding” possible across the region through Wednesday, the National Weather Service said.

West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale and Miami all have the potential for major flooding rains that could result in flood waters entering structures, stressing flood-control systems, submerging streets and parking lots and closing roads, the weather service’s 6 p.m. briefing said.

Gusts of tropical-storm-force winds are likely to reach South Florida late Tuesday night through Wednesday night with the possibility of a few tornadoes throughout Wednesday, the NWS Miami said. The probability for tropical-force winds for South Florida is 35 to 45%.

The storm is expected to expand as it strengthens, placing a larger area at risk of high winds. These winds can rip off tree branches, knock down power line and blow objects off the ground, the weather service said.

“While a direct landfall to South Florida is unlikely at this time, hazardous conditions can extend well away from the center of the system” the weather service said.

If Ian were to reach major hurricane status, it would be the season’s second major Atlantic hurricane. Fiona, which dissipated Sunday as a remnant low, was 2022′s first major hurricane.

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Most of Florida continued to brace for the uncertain path of the intensifying storm.

Tampa Bay and the Anclote River south to Flamingo are under a storm surge warning while storm surge watches are in place for the Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West, Dry Tortugas, Florida Bay, Aucilla River to Anclote River, Altamaha Sound to the Flagler and Volusia County line and the Saint Johns River.

Several Cuban provinces, the Dry Tortugas, and Florida’s Bonita Beach to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, are under a hurricane warning as of 5 a.m. Tuesday while a hurricane watch is in place for North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River and Bonita Beach to Englewood.

Tropical storm warnings were also in effect for several Cuban provinces, the lower Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West and from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Channel 5 Bridge, Lake Okeechobee, north of the Suwannee River to Anclote River, the Volusia/Brevard County line south to Jupiter Inlet and Lake Okeechobee.

Hundreds of thousands of people on the state’s west coast are under mandatory or voluntary evacuation orders.

The National Weather Service continues to emphasize uncertainty in the storm’s path once it enters the Gulf, and said the storm is expected to expand in size as well. The models show a possible direct hit to the Tampa area all the way through the Florida Panhandle.

Small changes in the path will make a big difference in the impact throughout Florida. In South Florida, widespread rain could lead to major flooding, accompanied by winds gusting up to tropical storm levels.

The National Hurricane Center’s latest advisory said the Florida Keys and coastal southwest and southeast Florida will see between 4 and 6 inches of rain with as much as 8 to 10 inches in some areas. Central west Florida could see a maximum of 20 inches in some areas while northeast Florida will get between 6 and 10 inches with up to 1 foot in some areas.

The remainder of the central part of the state will get between 4 and 8 inches, the center’s update said.

[ STAY UPDATED with the latest forecast for tropical weather at SunSentinel.com/hurricane ]

Forecasters are also monitoring a system in the Atlantic off Africa that is likely to develop into a tropical depression in the next few days as it moves over the central tropical Atlantic, the center said in its 2 a.m. update. It has a 70% chance of developing in the next two to five days but will run into upper-level winds by the end of the week, making it less likely to develop.

The next named storm to form would be Julia.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

Staff writers David Lyons and Scott Travis contributed to this report. Information from the Associated Press was also used.