DALLAS — Miami’s season is on the precipice after the Hurricanes lost to SMU on the road on Saturday.
The loss was UM’s second of the year, and they did it by failing in numerous ways.
Here are five takeaways from the loss:
1. The Hurricanes could not get out of their own way
Miami and its fans surely have some complaints about the officials on Saturday, some of which are likely valid and hurt UM’s chances. But the Hurricanes did not do themselves any favors.
UM has been one of the ACC’s most penalized teams this season, and the Hurricanes frequently shot themselves in the foot at the most inopportune times. Miami frequently wiped out quality plays or put itself in tough situations due to penalties, ending the game with 12 fouls for 96 yards.
“You don’t sit around and throw your hands at them and just say, ‘I don’t know,’” UM coach Mario Cristobal said. “Just go to work.”
No penalty looms larger than the unnecessary roughness call on Marquise Lightfoot late in the fourth quarter. SMU had a 4th-and-9, needing a first down to stay in the game when trailing by three. UM called a timeout, but Lightfoot did not hear the whistle and hit Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings. Before the play, Miami had nearly a 91 percent chance to win, according to ESPN’s win probability chart. After the Mustangs’ next play, that dropped to just under 67 percent.
“(We wanted to) see what they’re in,” Cristobal said. “So we’re using a timeout, and Marquise (Lightfoot) just didn’t hear the whistle. He’s just playing football, so I’m not sure why that’s called in such a critical situation when we’re trying to stop play. It’s really loud. I imagine people should step in and prevent players from moving forward, finishing a play, but didn’t happen. So we were called for a personal foul.”
UM made other mistakes, too, with several dropped catches and misplayed catches. The Hurricanes beat themselves on Saturday.
2. Miami’s offense is not explosive
Last year, the Hurricanes were one of the most explosive offenses in the nation. They had the second-most plays of 10-plus yards and 20 or more yards. They ranked in the top 10 nationally in plays of 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 or more yards, as well.
The offense was bound to change with the receivers all departing and Cam Ward going to the NFL. But this year’s version of UM is stagnant. Miami’s 113 plays of 10 or more yards ranks 69th nationally. UM is tied for 100th nationally in plays of 20 or more yards. And so on. The Hurricanes are 44th in points per game and 46th in yards per game.
On Saturday, the Hurricanes had three plays of 20 or more yards. SMU, which had fewer yards in total, had seven of those plays. Those big plays allowed the Mustangs to move the ball when they needed, even with a stagnant running game.
3. UM’s run game is failing in crucial spots
Miami offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson defended the Hurricanes’ propensity to run between the tackles at his weekly press conference on Monday. And when the Hurricanes’ running game is clicking, they can run between the tackles well — particularly with talented, bruising running back Mark Fletcher Jr. (who left Saturday’s game with an undisclosed injury).
Miami ran between the tackles on 13 of 33 running-back carries against SMU (39.4 percent), which is about average for UM this season. But it was the timing of some of the inside runs that did not work that proved infuriating for many Hurricanes fans. Miami ran the ball five times on third downs and gained 7 total yards. Three of those five runs resulted in first downs.
In the third quarter, Jordan Lyle gained 2 yards on a third-and-3. Miami followed that with a run by Fletcher up the middle, and SMU stopped it for a turnover on downs at the Mustangs’ 29. In the fourth quarter, Marty Brown lost a yard on a third-and-1, forcing Miami to kick a field goal from the Mustangs’ 25.
4. Hurricanes avoid going deep
SMU entered Saturday’s game with the worst pass defense in the Power 4, surrendering over 300 yards per game. The Hurricanes could not match that average, ending the game with 274 passing yards.
Quarterback Carson Beck was not bad in the game. He ended the contest completing 68 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and two interceptions — one of which bounced off receiver Jojo Trader’s hands. Pro Football Focus gives him an adjusted completion percentage of about 81 percent and a passing grade of 79.
But the Mustangs’ pass defense entered the game allowing the most passes of 10 yards or more in the nation, and they were outside the top 100 in passes of 20, 30 and 40 yards or more.
Beck threw 20 yards or more downfield four times out of his 38 attempts, and he went 10 yards or more on 13 of 38. None of his four attempts of 20 or more yards came after the tipped interception.
Cristobal said the calls for potential deep passes were still made, but SMU took those potential plays away.
“The calls were still made,” Cristobal said. “The coverages do change. The umbrella changes. So sometimes the underneath stuff is more what we were taking.”
5. Where does UM go from here? It’s hard to say
The Hurricanes find themselves in a familiar spot. Despite their poor play, they are not a bad team. They are 6-2 with four winnable games on the schedule. UM could very well end the year 10-2 for the second season in a row.
But is 10-2 good enough? It almost certainly won’t be good enough to make the ACC title game, given the standings. It will probably not be good enough to make the College Football Playoff — The Athletic’s model gives the Hurricanes a 15 percent chance to make the playoffs, and ESPN’s FPI gives UM about a 14 percent chance. Their fate will hinge on what the selection committee thinks — if they win the rest of their games, which is far from guaranteed.
The reality is the Hurricanes are clearly in better shape as a program than they were before Cristobal. Before Cristobal arrived at Miami, UM had one 10-win season in the previous 18 seasons. A second would show the clear step up Miami has taken. But it looks like this season will end with the Hurricanes unable to get over those final humps, leaving many unsatisfied.