Byron Donalds and Casey DeSantis are effectively tied in a poll asking Republicans who they’d like to see as their party’s nominee for governor in 2026.
The University of North Florida poll, released Thursday, found 32% of Republicans surveyed said they’d vote for DeSantis, wife of Gov. Ron DeSantis.
U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, who has been endorsed for governor by President Donald Trump, would receive 29%.
The poll results don’t predict what will happen.
The primary is more than a year away, on Aug. 18, 2026. While Donalds has been running for months, DeSantis hasn’t said if she’s going to run. And the 32%-29% result is a difference of just three percentage points, which is within the survey’s margin of error and statistically a tie.
One major plus for Donalds in the results: when pollsters considered people who voted in the 2024 Florida primary, he performed better than in the broader survey of Republican registered voters.
“Among folks who voted in the last primary, Donalds is 15 points ahead of DeSantis, and it’s likely those same folks will be the ones voting next August, so this race might not actually be as close as it appears,” Michael Binder, a University of North Florida political scientist and faculty director of its Public Opinion Research Lab, said in a statement.
Also positive for Donalds: The results represent larger improvement over time than for DeSantis. A fall 2023 University of North Florida survey found DeSantis with 22% and Donalds had 9%. “DeSantis’ lead has all but disappeared,” Binder said.
Donalds performs better among men, voters aged 65 and older, and South Florida Republicans.
DeSantis was ahead among women, Hispanics, voters in north and central Florida, and voters under age 65.
In recent months, DeSantis has faced scrutiny for the first time since her husband took office in January 2019. Investigative reports and legislative scrutiny — from fellow Republicans — have focused on the track record and financial practices of her Hope Florida Foundation. The organization had once been seen as a major selling point for a potential gubernatorial campaign.
Some questions concern Hope Florida’s undocumented claims about what it touts as success steering Floridians off public assistance and the strength of internal procedures at the foundation, which failed to file required tax forms.
The biggest controversy involves $10 million donation the Hope Florida Foundation received as part of a state legal settlement with a Medicaid managed care company. The foundation then provided $5 million grants to two nonprofit organizations, which in turn contributed $8.5 million to a political committee opposing last year’s failed marijuana legalization ballot initiative.
Defeating the marijuana amendment was a key political objective for the governor last year. But critics have suggested the settlement should have been spent on Medicaid.
The good news for Casey DeSantis is that most Republicans, at least for now, don’t know anything about it.
The vast majority of Republicans — 63% — said they had never heard of the Hope Florida Foundation. It was viewed favorably by 23% and unfavorably by 6%. (By comparison, just 7% of state Republicans said they had never heard of the Alligator Alcatraz migrant detention center the state established in the Everglades.)
If DeSantis is in a primary with Donalds, Republican voters are sure to be blitzed with information about Hope Florida, Sean Freeder, a UNF political scientist, said in a statement.
“While (Republican voters’) lack of knowledge helps Casey DeSantis now, the Donalds campaign and others are sure to campaign on the scandal and, as Republican voters learn more, she’s likely to lose some support,” Freeder said.
Top concern
The governor has been traveling the state this year touting the idea of eliminating property taxes. But the poll found it’s not the top concern of Republican voters.
The top issue, his party’s voters said, is property insurance, with 20% citing it as the most important. Property taxes were cited by 12% of Republicans.
The party’s voters said housing costs, immigration and and economy/jobs/inflation were higher priority issues.
Approval ratings
Republicans remain exceedingly happy with the president and the governor.
Trump had 82% approval and 14% disapproval among Florida Republicans, for a net positive of 68 percentage points.
DeSantis had 83% approval and 13% disapproval among state Republicans, for a net positive of 70 percentage points.
By contrast, billionaire Elon Musk was viewed positively by 65% and unfavorably by 26%, for a net positive of 39%. Musk helped finance Trump’s 2024 victory, was close to the president until the two had a falling out, and ran what he and Trump called the Department of Government Efficiency.
Casey DeSantis was viewed favorably by 57% of Republicans, and unfavorably by 13%.
Donalds was viewed favorably 43% to 7%.
Pollsters reported 40% of respondents said they had never heard of him, compared to 19% who said they’d never heard of her.
Fine print
The poll of 797 active Florida Republican registered voters was conducted July 14 to July 22 by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab.
The poll used online surveys, in which voters were contacted by text message and asked to complete the survey, and live callers to people’s phones.
The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points for the full survey.
However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as men and women, rural and urban residents, or different age groups, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.
Information from the Orlando Sentinel is used in this report.
Political writer Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.
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