Disturbance over Yucatan Peninsula has low odds of developing; remnants of Julia could become new system

Heavy rains are expected in parts of southern Mexico, Belize and Guatemala over the next few days as a disturbance on the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to move over the Gulf of Mexico.

According to the National Hurricane Center’s 8 p.m. update, the system has a 30% chance of developing developing over the next two to five days, slightly higher than Monday afternoon. It could develop more Tuesday and Wednesday after moving slowly west-northwestward into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, though strong winds later in the week will further lower any odds of development.

Meanwhile, the remnants of former Hurricane Julia were 80 miles west-northwest of Guatemala City in Guatemala at 5 p.m. Monday. The system will continue to weaken Monday but could still cause flash flooding in parts of Central America and southern Mexico through Tuesday, the center’s advisory said.

Some of Julia’s remnants are forecast to move west and could help create a new area of low pressure off the western coast of southern Mexico in the next few days, the center’s latest advisory said. As of 5 p.m., there is a 30% chance that disturbance will form in the next five days.

[ RELATED: Hurricane Julia whipping Nicaragua’s central Caribbean coast ]

Julia reached Category 1 strength before it made landfall over Nicaragua on Sunday. The now weakened Julia is still expected to bring heavy rains through Tuesday, the center’s latest advisory said, with isolated totals of up to 10 inches in El Salvador and southern Guatemala, and 10 inches in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30. The next named storm will be Karl.