Tropical depression could form this week in Caribbean; forecasters tracking 4 systems

Activity is heating up in the tropics with four areas being monitored, including one area of low pressure that could form into a tropical depression this week as it moves west-northwest toward the Caribbean.

As of early Sunday, the National Hurricane Center had given it 30% odds of developing over the next 48 hours and 70% over the next five days. Experts said gradual development is expected as it moved through the central Atlantic and toward the central and western Caribbean.

It was producing disorganized thunderstorms Sunday as it moved west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. If a tropical depression or tropical storm were to form it would be called Danielle.

A second trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern Caribbean this week, and some slow development is possible as it moves west-northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula.

As of Sunday, the National Hurricane Center has given it a 20% chance of developing in the next five days.

A third disturbance located about 600 miles east of Bermuda Sunday has been given a 10% chance of development in the five-day forecast.

A fourth area of interest is a tropical wave expected to emerge off Africa’s west coast on Monday.

None of the systems is a threat to Florida at this time.

[ STAY UPDATED with the latest forecast for tropical weather at SunSentinel.com/hurricane ]

This could end up being just the third August since 1961 there hasn’t been a tropical storm in the Atlantic, according to AccuWeather.

There have only been three named storms so far this season — Alex, Bonnie and Colin — with the last one, Colin, dissipating on July 3, meaning this 56-day streak is the third-longest time in Atlantic hurricane season history without a named storm since 1995.

The longest dry spell since 1995 has been 61 days, from June 18 through Aug. 18 in 1999. However, that two-month run of inactivity was followed by a frenetic conclusion of the hurricane season that featured five Category 4 storms (Bret, Cindy, Floyd, Gert and Lenny) and the drenching Category 2 Irene, which achieved a rarity, with its eye passing over Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties in mid-October. There also was a 59-day streak during the 2007 season.

Forecasters say dry air, Saharan dust and wind shear have been among the reasons there haven’t been more storms this year.

The most active part of hurricane season is from now, mid-August, until the end of October, with Sept. 10 the statistical peak of the season.

[ RELATED: 30 years after Hurricane Andrew: How resilient is South Florida? ]

The last Atlantic hurricane was Sam, which became a hurricane Sept. 24 and maintained that status until Oct. 5 as it cut a path between the United States and Bermuda.

Of the three named storms so far this season, only Alex made its presence known in South Florida by dumping as much as 12 inches of rain in some areas.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its updated hurricane season predictions earlier this month.

NOAA predicts 14 to 20 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes with three to five being major, meaning Category 3 or higher.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.