Tropical Storm Fernand formed in the Atlantic on Saturday a few hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda and is expected to continue to strengthen through Sunday while it travels north over open water.
Generally following the track of Hurricane Erin, Tropical Storm Fernand will move north-northeast for the next few days, then turn northeast, the National Hurricane Center said in its Saturday forecast. Fernand should move well east of Bermuda over open water.
As of 5 p.m. Saturday, Fernand was 405 miles south-southeast of Bermuda with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, moving north at 15 mph. Its tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 105 miles from the storm’s center.
“Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Fernand could be near hurricane strength on Monday,” the NHC said. “Weakening is expected to begin on Tuesday.”
The storm has a 48-hour window over warm waters with light wind shear to strengthen in, according to forecasters. All models as of Saturday afternoon show Fernand will peak as a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane.
“After Monday, Fernand should weaken due to the influences of cooler waters and increasing shear, and the storm will likely become post-tropical in 3-4 days,” the Hurricane Center’s forecast said.
Forecasters are also monitoring a tropical wave several hundred miles east of the chain of islands in the far eastern Caribbean. It could develop in the next few days while it moves west between 20 and 25 mph, the National Hurricane Center said, but by Tuesday it is not expected to develop further. As of 2 p.m. Saturday, it has a 20% chance of developing in the next two two seven days.
Once Fernand and the second system fizzle, hurricane season looks like it will take a brief nap into September.
But don’t get comfortable, says Fox Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross.
Lulls in hurricane season are common. A nearly monthlong lull happened last year in late August, then was followed by high activity, including two major hurricanes — Helene and Milton — that caused widespread destruction in Florida and beyond.
“Last year there was a big gap at the end of August into September when we didn’t have anything that was significant,” Norcross said. “Then it was like a switch was flipped in the middle of September and suddenly one storm after the other formed.”
Fernand will stay well off the East Coast.
“The only concern for that system is Bermuda and it’s likely to move to the east of Bermuda based on what we know now,” Norcross said. “But I would say forecasts for disorganized systems are subject to large errors, so they’ll have to watch it.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s long-range tropical hazards outlook shows just a couple of areas with low chances of tropical cyclone development until at least Sept. 9. Coincidentally, Sept. 10 is the statistical peak of hurricane season.
NOAA
The tropical hazards outlook from NOAA shows low activity in the Atlantic Ocean over the next 14 days. (NOAA/courtesy)