U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, who has been barnstorming the state showing himself as Florida’s governor-like hurricane responder, is following up with a reelection campaign ad extolling his storm-season leadership.
It’s a collection of testimonials from six Florida sheriffs, five of whom are in their uniforms, praising the Republican senator they’ve endorsed for reelection. “I can tell you he is the first phone call we always get if there’s a hurricane, if there’s an issue that goes on,” explained Pasco County Sheriff Chris Nocco.
At the same time, former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, the Democrat challenging Scott, released what may be the most attention-grabbing Florida political ad of the year on Tuesday.
It starts with the video image of a snake around a tree branch. With Mucarsel-Powell narrating, the ad explains that “Florida’s biggest snake isn’t in the Everglades. He’s in the Senate: Rick Scott.”
At the moment she utters his name, the reptile’s head — Scott’s head — comes into view. The snake-with-Scott’s-head then slithers around, including stops at the U.S. Capitol and in the hall of a medical clinic as Mucarsel-Powell offers her assessment of Scott’s position on issues.
It concludes with a twist on the candidate disclaimer included in ads. “I’m Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and I approve this message because your family’s getting squeezed, and it’s time for a senator with a spine.”
Her campaign described the spot as “bold.”
It’s being released by the campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which is the party organization for U.S. Senate candidates. The Mucarsel-Poowell camp said it was part of “an ongoing eight-figure buy.”
Scott’s ad started airing statewide over the weekend, a campaign spokesperson said.
“Leadership” is among multiple commercials the Scott campaign is airing as part of what it said is an overall $10 million advertising effort.
Attack and response
The Scott ad comes as Floridians are still seeing news images of the devastation from Hurricane Helene, which made landfall on Sept. 26, and Hurricane Milton, which made landfall on Oct. 9.
Before the hurricanes, Scott made repeated stops in communities in the paths warning residents to make preparations and evacuate if necessary. After the hurricanes, he visited storm ravaged areas.
On Sunday, Scott accompanied President Joe Biden on his trip to see areas affected by Milton. Scott did the same thing after Helene, filling a government-style role as a prominent official from the state. Gov. Ron DeSantis stayed away from the president both times.
Scott’s activities as senator are more typical of governors, a job he used to hold, from 2011 until 2019, one that had a far more direct role in ensuring the safety of residents, marshaling of state resources, and directing recovery efforts.
Mucarsel-Powell has also been meeting with people affected and been highlighting climate change. On Tuesday, she held a climate change and property insurance discussion in St. Petersburg with U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor and state Rep. Lindsay Cross.
Much of the newest Scott ad, which shows the senator inspecting damaged communities and helping with relief efforts, is the same as one Scott released in response to an earlier ad from Mucarsel-Powell.
Her ad, entitled “Disaster,” started running after Helene battered parts of Florida’s Big Bend and ravaged other states. It sought to capitalize on public concern about the rapidly increasing costs of insurance. Democrats have also been depicting Scott as a climate-change denier.
The Scott campaign said Mucarsel-Powell’s Disaster spot was “sad (and) completely delusional, adding that “the only fact she gets right is her name. … It’s sad to see a silly socialist get so desperate that she’s willing to lie to politicize a natural disaster that killed Floridians.”
Scott also issued a response ad in which he said votes “threw her out” after one term in Congress. “Why? She votes like a socialist and makes things up,” along with the same sheriff’s testimonials.
Voter concern
The advertising from both camps taps into an emotional issue with far-reaching political tentacles.
Voters are concerned with storm, climate and insurance issues.
A Florida Atlantic University Poll, conducted before hurricanes Helene and Milton and released Tuesday, was devoted mostly to those issues.
Among the questions/statements and results:
- How concerned are you about hurricanes becoming stronger and/or more frequent in Florida? 35% were extremely concerned, 30% moderately concerned, 26% slightly concerned, and just 8% not at all concerned.
- How concerned are you about higher storm surge flooding near Florida’s coastline? 35% were extremely concerned, 30% moderately concerned, 26% slightly concerned, 9% not at all concerned.
- Climate change has me concerned about being able to afford and maintain my homeowner’s insurance in Florida. 58% agree, 19% disagree, 24% neutral.
- Climate change has me concerned about the well-being of future generations in Florida. 66% agree, 15% disagree, 19% neutral.
- Do you think climate change is happening? 58%, Yes, and it’s caused largely by human activity; 30%, Yes, and it is caused largely by natural changes in the environment; 12%, no.
- The federal government should do more to address the impacts of climate change. Agree, 67%; disagree, 14%; neutral, 20%.
- A candidate’s political record reducing the impacts of climate change would make me more likely to vote for that candidate. Agree, 52%; disagree, 18%; neutral, 30%.
The issue plays to the base of each party. On each of the questions, Democrats were more likely to be concerned about climate change, windstorm insurance and wanting government action to combat climate change.
For example, Among Democrats, 74% said they were more likely to vote for a candidate with a record of reducing the impacts of climate change. Far fewer Republicans (35%) and no party affiliation voters (39%) felt that way.
“The partisan split on climate in Florida appears to be growing, reversing the growing consensus we’ve observed in recent years. That said, when specific climate-related actions are discussed, such as increasing the share of solar in our electricity portfolios, voters are overwhelmingly supportive,” Colin Polsky, a professor of geosciences, said in a written statement.
The Invading Sea’s Florida Climate Survey was conducted by the FAU Center for Environmental Studies. Polsky, associate vice president of Broward Campuses for FAU, is the former director of the Center for Environmental Studies.
Senate contest
Independent political analysts have long seen Scott as the likely winner of the race. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the Florida Senate race as “likely Republican.”
During Scott’s political career — his winning campaigns for governor in 2010 and 2014 and for U.S. Senate in 2018 — he consistently polls under 50%, and then pulls off nail-bitingly tight wins.
The latest 2024 polling shows him leading Mucarsel-Powell.
A Marist College survey conducted from Oct. 3 to 7 showed Scott leading 50% to 48% among likely voters. A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6 showed Scott ahead of Mucarsel-Powell among likely voters 48% to 39%.
And a Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey conducted Oct. 1-4 for WTVJ-Ch.6 and WSCV-Ch. 51 (Telemundo) showed Scott leading 48% to 41% among likely voters.
Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign manager, Ben Waldon, in a memo released Tuesday, professed optimism.
“Rick Scott’s high unfavorability numbers and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s unique strength as a candidate have quickly made the Florida Senate race the best, fastest-moving opportunity for Democrats to pick up a Senate seat,” he wrote.
“In the face of Scott’s vast personal wealth, the Debbie for Florida campaign has been able to spend nearly at parity with the Scott campaign on TV in September. The DSCC has also announced a multimillion-dollar investment in Florida that will allow the Debbie for Florida campaign to continue running an aggressive campaign against Rick Scott,” he wrote.
Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.