First, the bad news about the Dolphins’ trade of a second-round pick for quarterback Josh Rosen:
There is no bad news.
Nothing to complain about. Nothing for Dolphins fans used to grumbling to seriously second-guess. Nothing from any rational, financial, historical, risk-to-reward or even future-looking view is wrong with this move at all.
First. the Dolphins traded down to No. 62, sending their No. 48 pick to the New Orleans Saints along with the Dolphins’ No. 116 pick in the fourth. In return, the Dolphins got two second-round picks, one of which is in 2020, and a sixth-round pick (No. 202).
The Dolphins then traded their new No. 62 pick to the Arizona Cardinals for Rosen.
Getting Rosen wasn’t just smart. It’s exactly what this franchise hasn’t done in two decades of searching for a quarterback in the same, aimless manner others search for Sasquatch.
The Dolphins got a quarterback drafted with the 10th pick last year who is only 22, who has a tough rookie year in Arizona under his belt and who must be humbled and motivated – they got him all for a discounted price of the 62nd pick.
Best-case scenario: Rosen shows the mind and talent to lead this team for the next decade.
Worst-case scenario: It doesn’t work out. The Dolphins’ brain trust decide after watching him work he’s not The Man. It then dips into the quarterback-rich 2020 draft for their future.
In this, General Manager Chris Grier pulled off a common-sense move on Friday his predecessors never did. For years, the mystery is why Dolphins management teams didn’t keep investing in a quarterback until they had one.
They held the limited hand of the likes of Jay Fiedler, Chad Henne and Ryan Tannehill until it didn’t work, that era collapsed and a new regime was brought in to try it their way. Which too often was a similar way.
Grier immediately made a play for one young quarterback while still having another plan in place next year if needed. That doesn’t mean the Dolphins come out of this with a franchise quarterback. It falls in the nothing-ventured-nothing-gained file, though.
The only legitimate second-guess here is Grier got the wrong guy. Ohio State’s Dwyane Haskins could have been taken in Thursday night’s first round. A different trade, and Missouri’s Drew Lock could have been moved on in the second round.
There’s also the side question of why New England didn’t move on Rosen (or Lock, for that matter). The Patriots need a successor to Tom Brady. They have 12 picks this draft to make a trade. Why didn’t Bill Belichick like Rosen?
It comes down to not just getting a quarterback, but getting the mystical right quarterback. Grier studied the options. He and his staff had information at his disposal only true NFL insiders could. They no doubt debated the full decision.
They did their job in picking Rosen. The only question left is whether they do their job well. Or maybe it’s if they get the bit of necessary luck in choosing a quarterback this franchise hasn’t over the years to compound their dumb decisions.
There’s no need to rewind the tape through missing on Drew Brees (twice), Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson years ago or all the more recent passes on Carson Wentz, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and, yes, Rosen.
A year ago, the three Dolphins leaders couldn’t agree on Rosen. Grier, coach Adam Gase and vice president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum had a consensus liking of Baker Mayfield. They didn’t on the other quarterbacks taken in the top 10 – Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Rosen.
The cost then was a high, first-round draft pick. The questions soften if it’s a late second-round pick. It doesn’t mean the issues of Rosen’s arrogant personality or teammates’ perceived dislike for him go away.
It just means the high cost of being wrong does. The Dolphins, you see, got the first-round pick they wanted in Clemson defensive lineman Christian Wilkins in Thursday’s first round. Now they got a quarterback worth some hope.
Rosen was a shiny new car driven off the lot a year ago whose price went down in a bad rookie season of 11 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and a 66.7 rating on the league’s worst team. Rosen played for a defensive-minded coach, too.
That sounds a lot like the Los Angeles Rams’ Jared Goff, who by his third year was in the Super Bowl. Maybe Rosen develops like Goff in a better environment. Maybe he doesn’t. Who knows?
Either way, the cost isn’t much. The Dolphins are in full, re-build mode. Journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick, 36, is the only other legitimate option at quarterback. Rosen makes $6.2 million over the next three years.
What’s not to like?
If Rosen doesn’t work out, the Dolphins have the predictably bad year and move on to the next draft, minus only a second-round pick.
For years, the Dolphins’ plan at quarterback was to cross their fingers the embedded incumbent took the next step. Seven years with Ryan Tannehill. Five years with Chad Henne before him. All with no other option.
Grier employed a better plan in his first draft as GM. Get a quarterback now. If that doesn’t work, get one next year. And, hopefully, keep trying for one until you succeed.
Rosen might not be the answer. But, at this cost, it’s worth a shot.
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